EDITORIAL: Politics is a fickle business. JUI-F (Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam Pakistan) chief Maulana Fazlur Rehman headed the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM), a nine-party alliance which ousted the PTI government in a no-confidence motion and formed a multi-party alliance government.

Since his party’s poor showing in the February 8 general elections, the Maulana has changed tack. He came to the National Assembly on April 29, two months after taking oath as an MNA on February 9, and railed against his perceived detractors.

Accusing the bureaucracy and the establishment of manipulating election results, he asked his former PDM partners, the PML-N (Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz) and PPP (Pakistan People’s Party), to hand over government to the PTI (Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf), his former nemesis, if it really won the largest number of seats in the election. Lest his assertions could be shrugged off as empty rhetoric, he announced his plan for a ‘million march’ starting with a protest rally in Karachi on May 2, and in Peshawar on May 9, with the warning that “if anyone tries to stop it, he will invite trouble for himself.”

Addressing a huge rally in Karachi, Maulana Rehman reiterated most of his earlier allegations, calling the assemblies fake not only “because the elections were fraudulent, or the vote count was bogus, but also because the seats were decided through sale and purchase.”

Adding a new factor to his grievances, he went on to aver that his party was denied its real mandate by the establishment since the US was angry over his engagement with Gaza Palestinian resistance group, Hamas, as well as the Afghan Taliban. His critics though say he is a slippery customer seeking accommodation with the ruling setup by using pressure tactics.

But considering his ever hardening stance, how can he become part of an ‘arrangement’ whose legality he refuses to accept? Be that as it may, it is difficult to disagree with his contention that the Feb 8 elections were rigged. Even some prominent members of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s party have publicly been casting doubts on its outcome.

Some previous governments also came to power through manipulation, but none faced as serious legitimacy questions as has the present one. Not all of the JUI-F leader’s claims may be true, nevertheless there is plenty of verifiable evidence supporting his principal argument and disputation.

A six-party coalition of opposition parties has already launched a countrywide movement under the banner of Tahafuz Ayeen-i-Pakistan (protecting the Constitution of Pakistan) for the rule of law. The Maulana has an unmatched street power.

He can mobilise thousands of supporters and his madressah students at a moment’s notice. In case he decides to join the opposition alliance, that can produce serious disorder and chaos. It is hard to predict how and where the fight will end.

But it will create more political instability, increasing the severity of the present economic crisis. It is imperative therefore that all involved try and find a way out of the present standoff before things get out of control.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2024

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) on Thursday issued a detailed 234-page ‘white paper’ on alleged rigging and irregularities in February 08 general elections and demanded formation of a high-powered judicial commission to probe them.

Speaking at a presser, PTI Chairman Barrister Gohar Ali Khan, along with opposition leaders in Senate and National Assembly, Shibli Faraz and Omar Ayub, respectively, claimed that the electoral process was marred by serious flaws and compromises. “We’d won 180 seats in February 8 general elections…our seats were given to other parties through Forms 47s,” he said, adding “we’ve filed a petition in Supreme Court against the alleged rigging, besides filing 158 petitions in different election tribunals, but our pleas are yet to be fixed for hearing”.

“We are issuing a white paper to bring it to the notice of the people as how their mandate was stolen and we will not rest unless our mandate is returned,” he maintained.

Referring to the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP)’s decision to declare the party’s intra-party polls as invalid, Barrister Gohar said that the party was forced to contest the general elections without its traditional bat electoral symbol. “Our victory was turned into defeat by manipulating election results in the Form 47,” he added.

The PTI chief said the white paper is based on the reports of international organisations, foreign media and newspapers’ report.

He also called for carrying out the electoral reforms to eliminate rigging in the polls once and for all.

The opposition leader in National Assembly, Omar Ayub, PTI secretary general said that the ECP was granted billions of rupees to hold free and fair elections in the country. “We demand the chief election commissioner to step down.”

Highlighted within the white paper are a myriad of concerns, including breaches of constitutional mandates for election procedures, allegations of bias in the caretaker government’s extended tenure, and purported instances of election manipulation aimed at marginalising PTI from the electoral arena.

One of the core contentions is the alleged violation of the constitutionally prescribed 90-day timeframe for conducting general elections, with PTI suggesting an unlawful extension of the caretaker government’s term. Besides, PTI points to what it dubs a “London plan” and the purported false flag operation on May 9th, involving violent incidents and assassination attempts targeting PTI figures and supporters.

The white paper accuses authorities of manipulating electoral rolls, censoring media coverage, rejecting PTI candidates’ nomination papers, and orchestrating internet shutdowns, all purportedly to sabotage PTI’s electoral prospects.

Evidence presented in the white paper spans from the pre-poll phase to the final government gazette notification, including statements from key officials like the Commissioner of Rawalpindi and a letter from the Returning Officer (RO) for NA-8 detailing alleged misconduct by his staff.

Beyond the immediate implications for electoral integrity, PTI emphasises the broader erosion of public trust in Pakistan’s democratic institutions. In response, PTI has proposed a series of measures to rectify the situation, including the Supreme Court’s intervention to investigate alleged electoral fraud and the formation of an independent judicial commission with powers to subpoena witnesses and access international election observers’ reports such as the EU Mission, PATTAN, PILDAT, FAFEN, Commonwealth Observers Group, and the US Institute of Peace.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2024

An incarcerated Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) founding chairman, Imran Khan, has rejected the reports of any deal with the powers that be, saying neither anyone has approached him nor has he received any message for striking a deal.

He has, however, raised a question why the powers that be would make a deal with him, saying that “On the day of general elections [February 8] people stood on a side; it was the time to negotiate.” Be that as it may, it is important to note that the PTI chairman has not ruled out the possibility of cutting a deal in spite of the fact that he has raised a seemingly legitimate question in this regard.

In my view, Imran Khan has shown, albeit reluctantly, a willingness to yield or cooperate because of a desire to be agreeable. He must have understood by now that ours is not a Jeffersonian democracy, so to speak. I think Imran Khan knows too well how democracy has evolved and how it operates in Pakistan.

Having said that, the fact that he or his party was deprived of a level playing field in the 2008 general election cannot be overemphasised. I believe the PTI founder is fully aware of the developments, including the May 9 violence in particular, that preceded establishment’s conclusion that his party had crossed the red line.

It is therefore about time the party revisited its approach to politics in order to protect and preserve the gains that it had made so far; one of which is the fact that it is the largest political party in the country with its founder being the most popular and charismatic leader.

Last but not least, the powers that be too appear to be amenable to talks, given Imran Khan and his party have already paid a very costly a price by squandering away the opportunity to regain power due to whatever reasons. I wish both—the establishment and Imran Khan—success.

Anwar Saeed Ghumman

Lahore

Copyright Business Recorder, 2024

The thing about economic indicators is they can tell whatever story the narrator wishes to sell. A quick look at latest current account balance would indicate that Pakistan’s economy has achieved hard won stability, with 9M fiscal year current account deficit at its lowest since early 2015. An eternal pessimist, however, might point to the performance of textile exports, which on a 12-month rolling basis are at their lowest in 18 months.

So which number should independent observers put their faith in? That depends on the type of answer you are looking for. If you are sick of the news pieces and vlogs predicting “Pakistan’s economy imploding”, the current account numbers might be your preferred vice. The latest snapshot of the current account confirms beyond a shadow of doubt that fears of balance of payment crisis have subsided. Foreign exchange reserves of the central bank have increased by 2.2 times over the last ten months, making forecasts of Pakistan defaulting on its external debt obligations – recurrent headlines till just six months ago – appear almost laughable (in retrospect, of course). But if you are willing to dive even slightly deeper, that hard won confidence might unravel fairly quickly.

The economic stabilization witnessed over the last six to ten months in effect stands on two pillars: the stabilization in exchange rate since September 2023, and a stellar performance by food exports segment. Take away either, and the edifice would collapse almost immediately, tall tales of IMF wooed notwithstanding. Those of weak faith can’t help but ask what is keeping the exchange rate stable (in fact, ten percent lower since Aug-2023) when exports are virtually at a standstill. And if you are one with no faith at all, you can’t help but wonder: what happens to the outstanding growth in food export when Indian rice exports enter the fray next quarter?

Remember, Pakistan’s food exports doubled between Aug and Dec 2023, and are currently 51 percent higher than the previous year. However, this performance is almost fully attributable to growth in export of primary commodities: rice, sesame, and corn – which could quickly return to last year’s levels if either the weather or global prices turn unfavorable. Global commodity prices are already receding, and exporters can only withstand unfriendly movement in exchange rate for so long, a phenomenon already visible in corn and sesame. Meanwhile, the jump in rice exports is all thanks to Mr. Modi’s re-election jitters, who banned rice export last year in a bid to restrain food inflation at home in the run up to general elections 2024.

Which brings us to the anti-hero of this story: textile exports. Whichever way you wish to look at it, textile exports are at a standstill, and will not resume growth unless there is a breakthrough in energy tariffs. If you have been sold the lie that industry exports have bottomed out and can only rise from hereon, look no further than the trends in export bill discounting, which are at their lowest level since the pandemic (on 12 months rolling basis). Granted, bill purchases have recovered since August 2023 when the exchange rate had bottomed out. But these have since plateaued, most likely indicating that whatever gains could be made from currency stability have now been long exhausted. If you have come to believe that agricultural exports can replace the lost opportunity in textile exports, this section is barking up the wrong tree.

So, what does macroeconomic outlook look like? Depends on the question you are asking. Has macroeconomic stabilization on the external front been achieved? Yes. Is Pakistan going to default on its external obligations in the near term? Most certainly not. But change the question, for example, to whether exports are now on solid footing? No. Could Pakistan withstand an external shock ala February 2022, such as a war breaking out in Middle East, oil prices rising, or a capital flight to safety? Most definitely not.

The members of the monetary policy committee should pay hard and close attention to these questions before rolling out the ‘Mission Accomplished’ banner, come next Monday.

ISLAMABAD: The incarcerated Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) founding chairman, Imran Khan, on Tuesday, rejected the rumours of any deal with the powers that be, saying neither anyone has approached him nor he has received any message for striking a deal.

Talking to the media after hearing of the Al-Qadir Trust case, he said the question is, why they would make a deal with me. “On the day of general elections [February 8] people stood on a side; it was the time to negotiate,” he said.

Khan said Punjab police interfered during the recent bye-elections on April 21. The bye-elections were held in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa but police did not register any case against anyone, he said, adding there was no democracy in the country.

Rule of law: IK writes 7-point letter to CJP

He said that elections were delayed from February to October and were aimed at crashing PTI.

The PTI founder said that democracy was mandatory for a stable government which was possible only through fair and transparent elections. The present setup in the country was causing damage to the country, he said.

He said his wife had nothing to do with politics, adding she had been awarded a sentence and locked in a room. “Cases have been registered against my three sisters,” he said.

Khan said “we had good relations with Saudi Arabia, due to which the OIC Foreign Minister’s conference was held during his government.

Earlier, Accountability Court judge Nasir Javed Rana, while hearing the £190 million National Crime Agency (NCA) scam commonly known as the Al-Qadir Trust recorded statements of more than six witnesses.

The PTI founding chairman and Bushra Bibi’s lawyers, Usman Gull, Zaheer Abbas Chaudhry, and Khalid Yousaf Chaudhry, appeared before the court.

During the hearing, the defence counsel completed cross-examination of two more witnesses. So far, the court recorded statements of 21 witnesses and defence counsels completed cross-examination of 15 prosecution witnesses.

The court adjourned the hearing of the case till April 29.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2024

ISLAMABAD: In a goodwill gesture to mend relations after tit-for-tat missile strikes in January this year, the Foreign Office (FO) confirmed on Sunday that Iranian President Dr Ebrahim Raisi would arrive on a two-day - from April 22 (Monday) to April 24 (Wednesday) - official visit to Pakistan today (Monday).

A statement issued by the FO said that this would be the first visit by any head of state to Pakistan after the February 8 general elections.

“The Iranian president will be accompanied by his spouse and a high-level delegation comprising the foreign minister and other members of the cabinet, senior officials as well as a large business delegation,” the FO said.

Iranian President to arrive on 22nd

It said that Raisi would meet Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, President Asif Ali Zardari, Senate Chairman Yousaf Raza Gillani and National Assembly Speaker Ayaz Sadiq. “He will also visit Lahore and Karachi and meet with the provincial leadership,” it added.

“The two sides will have a wide-ranging agenda to further strengthen Pakistan-Iran ties and enhance cooperation in diverse fields including trade, connectivity, energy, agriculture, and people-to-people contacts,” the FO said. “They will also discuss regional and global developments and bilateral cooperation to combat the common threat of terrorism,” it added.

“Pakistan and Iran enjoy strong bilateral ties anchored in history, culture and religion. This visit provides an important opportunity to further strengthen Pakistan-Iran relations,” the FO concluded.

The visit comes months after Iran launched attacks in Pakistan targeting what it described as bases for the militant group Jaish al-Adl in the border town of Panjgur in Balochistan, Iranian state media reported, prompting strong condemnation from Islamabad and downgrading of diplomatic ties.

Less than 48 hours later, Pakistan struck terrorist hideouts in Iran’s Sistan-Baluchestan province. Reacting to the strikes, Iran had stressed that it would not allow its enemies to strain its “amicable and brotherly relations” with Islamabad.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2024

ISLAMABAD: Preparations are complete for the by-elections on 5 National and 16 provincial Assembly seats across Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and Balochistan scheduled for Sunday (today), accompanied by heightened security measures to address any potential incidents.

Polling will proceed without interruption from 8 am to 5 pm for seats vacated by candidates who won multiple seats or where polling was delayed in the Feb 8 general elections due to the death of a candidate.

By-polls on 21 seats: election campaigns conclude

The polling will be conducted across 5 National Assembly seats, 12 Punjab Assembly seats, two Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) Assembly seats, and two Balochistan Assembly seats. According to Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP), the re-polling in PB 50 Killa Abdullah would be also held on Sunday.

The polling for NA-8 Bajaur and PK-22 Bajaur was delayed on February 8 following the assassination of a candidate, Rehan Zeb Khan. Additionally, polling will take place in NA-44 Dera Ismail Khan, where the National Assembly seat was relinquished by Ali Amin Gandapur, who opted to retain his provincial assembly seat in order to assume the role of KP’s chief minister.

Similarly, Punjab Chief Minister Maryam Nawaz Sharif vacated her NA-119 seat in Pakistan’s eastern city of Lahore, choosing instead to keep the PP-159 constituency that she also won.

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif won elections on two provincial and National Assembly seats. He left the NA-132 Kasur and Lahore’s PP-158 and PP-164 seats vacant, preferring to retain the NA-123 Lahore constituency.

Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) Chairman Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari won two National Assembly seats. He retained the NA-194 Larkana constituency, leaving the NA-196 seat in Qamber-Shahdadkot vacant.

The Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) provided 6.23 million ballot papers to the relevant Returning Officers (ROs) for the upcoming by-elections in 21 constituencies.

Approximately 2.55 million Pakistanis are expected to participate in voting for the five National Assembly constituencies, while around 3.61 million individuals will cast their votes for 16 provincial assembly seats nationwide.

A total of 174 candidates are contesting in the by-elections for 12 provincial constituencies in Punjab, where the voter count stands at approximately 4.04 million.

According to the Election Commission of Pakistan, the by-elections for two provincial constituencies of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa have a total of 1.47 million voters. In the race, there are 49 candidates, and 892 polling stations have been set up, with 139 identified as sensitive.

In NA-196 in Sindh, two candidates will compete, with 423,781 voters eligible to cast their ballots across 303 polling stations, 158 of which are sensitive, according to the ECP. The ECP has announced that by-elections will take place for two provincial constituencies, PB-20 and PB-22, in Balochistan. A total of 396,246 voters in the province will participate, with 354 polling stations designated for the process.

Nine candidates, including Ali Pervaiz and Shehzad Farooq, are vying for the National Assembly seat NA-119, while 11 candidates, including PML-N nominee Malik Riaz independent Muhammad Khan Madani, are competing in PP-147.

ISLAMABAD: President Asif Ali Zardari today (Thursday) will address the joint sitting of the Parliament. Under Article 56(3) of the Constitution, the President shall address a joint session of Parliament at the commencement of the parliamentary year after general elections. The joint-sitting of the Parliament would be held at 4:00 pm.

According to Presidency’s media wing, President Zardari also called the session of the National Assembly on the next day (Friday) of joint-sitting of the Parliament at 10:30 am. The President called the session of the National Assembly under Article 54 (1) of the Constitution. As for the joint sitting of the Parliament, this will be President Zardari’s record seventh address to the joint sitting of the National Assembly and Senate.

During his five-year stint in the Presidency from 2008 to 2013, he had already addressed the parliament six times.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2024

ISLAMABAD: The Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) on Monday declared that the total number of registered voters in the country has surged to 130.136 million from 128.59 million on the eve of the February 8 general elections.

According to the latest data released by ECP, the registered voters to date stand at 130.136 million, with 70.043 million males and 60.092 million females, reflecting an increase of 1.546 million voters since the February 8 elections.

Islamabad has a total of 1.094 million voters, including 0.52 million females and 0.574 million males.

According to statistics released by ECP, the latest figures of voters include 70.40 million males and 60.92 million females.

The ECP said that in Punjab, the total voter count exceeds 74.93 million.

In Sindh, the total voter count is 27.259 million, with 14.4612 million male voters and over 12.382 million female voters.

Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, the third-largest province of the country, is home to over 22.83 million registered voters whereas, in Balochistan, the total number of registered voters has crossed 5.4 million.

According to ECP, the number of registered voters in February 2018 was 128 million.

“The ECP’s commitment to transparency is evident in this disclosure, providing citizens with accurate electoral information,” it added.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2024

ISLAMABAD: The general election 2024 was less fair than the past two general elections as it scored 49 percent in fairness assessment which is three percentage points lower than the score received for the 2018 general election and eight percentage points lower than the score for the 2013 general election, according to an assessment of Pakistan Institute of Legislative Development and Transparency (Pildat).

The report, “Assessment of the Quality of General Election 2024”, observed that fairness assessment scores for the 2013 and 2018 elections had stood at 57 percent and 52 percent respectively.

In this report, Pildat has highlighted the key issues which have negatively impacted the quality of the 2024 general election.

General Elections 2024: PILDAT releases its assessment report

During the pre-poll phase, Pildat observed considerable delays in scheduling of the election, political repression, lack of impartiality from State institutions and worsening law and order in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan.

The suspension of mobile phone and internet services on polling day not only compromised the Election Management System (EMS) but also created problems in public participation in the electoral process.

The delay in the announcement of the provisional results beyond the deadline fixed in Section 13(3) of the Elections Act, 2017 has prompted serious questions about the credibility of the election.

The widespread allegations of discrepancy between Form-45 and Form-47, suggesting that the provisional result was tempered with at the returning officers’ offices, have also created concerns around the credibility of the election.

The failure to publish Forms 45, 46, 48 and 49 on the ECP website within 14 days of polling day, as mandated by Section 95 (10) of the Elections Act, 2017, prompted questions regarding the integrity of the election results.

The ECP decision to allocate or not allocate the reserved seats to SIC was delayed and remained a major point of contention between the ECP and the SIC for 25 days since the polling day, while allocation of reserved seats was made to all other political parties.

In order to bring the controversies relating to general election 2024 to a close, it has been recommended that there are two possible avenues which need to be considered.

The most straightforward one is to allow Election Tribunals to resolve disputes on a case-by-case basis.

However, this will be a slow process as tribunals are allowed 180 days for resolution in the law and many petitions are decided even beyond the legal deadline.

Moreover, issues of understaffing have been raised.

Reportedly, the Lahore High Court has only constituted two tribunals against a request for nine by the ECP.

The second option is, in addition to the tribunals, to constitute a Commission of Enquiry like the one formed to probe the general election 2013.

This is an avenue that the incoming National Assembly should deliberate over to decide whether it is required and if it will help attain some political stability.

Overall, the controversies and challenges that dominated the 2024 election cycle in Pakistan point once again to the need for greater transparency and accountability to overcome systemic shortcomings and safeguard the integrity of future electoral processes.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2024

ISLAMABAD: Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said dialogue was needed to resolve heightened friction between Pakistan and India during a meeting in Riyadh with visiting Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.

Sharif was making his first overseas visit since winning power in elections in February. He met with bin Salman on Sunday.

“The two sides stressed the importance of dialogue between Pakistan and India to resolve the outstanding issues between the two countries, especially the Jammu and Kashmir dispute to ensure peace and stability in the region,” a joint statement released by foreign office and the Saudi government said.

MBS hosts Iftar for PM

Sharif and bin Salman had also discussed expediting a planned $5 billion investment package, which cash-strapped Pakistan desperately needs to shore up its current account deficit and signal to the International Monetary Fund that it can continue to meet requirements for foreign financing that has been a key demand in previous bailout packages.

Pakistan said in January it had credible evidence linking Indian agents to the killing of two of its citizens on its soil. India said it was “false and malicious” propaganda.

2024 emerged as a comparatively optimistic period in contrast to the challenging preceding years marked by Covid-19 pandemic. In its aftermath, global economy faced significant upheavals, with numerous businesses shutting down and both developed and underdeveloped nations grappling with inflationary pressures.

The geopolitical situation further exacerbated economic uncertainties, particularly with the eruption of Russia-Ukraine conflict that reverberated across the world, impacting economies of the European Union and the United States. Moreover, unresolved tensions stemming from Israel-Palestine conflict, in particular the devastating attack in October 2023 resulting in loss of thousands of lives, intensified global economic volatility.

The cumulative effect of these crises accentuated the fragility of global economic growth and heightened uncertainties regarding future trajectories.

In addition to global conflicts, 2024 is marked as election year in various countries. Alongside European Parliament Elections set for June 6-9, 2024, the United States and numerous other nations are gearing up for their electoral processes. Pakistan held its general elections, beyond the stipulated period provided in the Constitution, on February 8, 2024, resulting in a fragmented outcome where no party secured a clear majority to form a government. Consequently, a coalition government was formed by the two major political parties, Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and Pakistan People Party (PPP).

Despite allegations of electoral irregularities from opposition factions, a government has been formed and is now operational. The primary focus of the newly-formed government is on revitalizing the economy and addressing pressing socio-economic challenges. With the mandate to navigate the nation through difficult times, the coalition government faces the daunting task of fostering economic stability and fostering growth amid a complex geopolitical landscape.

Despite having been in power for approximately a month, the government has yet to propose innovative solutions to tackle prevailing economic difficulties. The Finance Minister’s apparent lack of direction in devising revenue generation strategies is quite concerning. There seems to be a reliance on judicial rulings to favour government taxation, potentially yielding around Rs 1700 billion.

However, this approach overlooks the reality that assessing officers often issue arbitrary and inconsistent orders. Dependency on legal outcomes highlights a broader issue of strategic planning and foresight within the finance ministry. It is imperative for the government to proactively explore comprehensive measures that go beyond litigation-dependent approaches, ensuring a more robust and sustainable economic trajectory.

Moreover, it is imperative for the Finance Minister to recognize that the government’s success rate in both High Court and Supreme Court is less than 5%. While the minister may possess commendable administrative experience, his educational background lacks expertise in economics, public policy, and public financial management.

Therefore, it would be prudent to consult with industry experts when formulating revenue generation measures. Collaborating with professionals well-versed in economic and financial matters can enrich the policymaking process and enhance the effectiveness of revenue generation strategies.

Consulting with experts can provide invaluable insights and ensure that policies are formed by a comprehensive understanding of economic principles and market dynamics. This approach can contribute to the development of more robust and pragmatic solutions tailored to address Pakistan’s economic challenges effectively.

Apart from Pakistan, the United States is gearing up for its own election on November 5, 2024. The Democratic candidate is expected to retain presidency, unless Donald J. Trump, representing the Republicans, is disqualified, or convicted by the courts. Trump faces multiple legal challenges, with his Hush money trial scheduled to commence on April 15, following a judge’s refusal to further postpone the case.

However, Trump’s legal team plans to file a motion alleging bias against Judge Juan Marchan, seeking his recusal due to his alleged Democratic affiliations. This motion stems from Marchan’s reported past contributions to Democratic campaigns and his daughter’s role as president of Authentic Campaigns, a prominent progressive political consulting firm in Chicago. Particularly, Authentic Campaigns has high-profile Republican clients, including Adam Schiff, who served as the lead prosecutor in Trump’s first impeachment trial, according to reports in the New York Post.

Furthermore, in our neighboring country India, a six-week election schedule starting on April 19, 2024, for the Lok Sabha polls has been announced. The election will be conducted in seven phases, with voting concluding on June 1, and the vote count is scheduled for June 4.

It is interesting to note that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is seeking a third term after completing his second. However, his opponent has labeled his government as one of the most corrupt, alleging financial irregularities in highway projects. Furthermore, a significant scandal involving Modi concerns the alleged concealment of donations from businesses, adding to the political tension ahead of the elections.

According to Reuters, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has been the primary beneficiary of an opaque funding scheme since 2019. This scheme permits individuals and companies to make unlimited and anonymous donations to political parties. Reuters further revealed that BJP accounted for nearly half of the total bonds sold, amounting to 165 billion rupees ($1.98 billion), between January 2018 and February 2024.

The Washington Post’s recent story revealed a tumultuous scenario in Indian politics, with substantial donations traced back to under-investigation firms revealing that Jalan’s enterprises covertly contributed millions to the Indian Prime Minister’s party. This data leak provided unprecedented insight into the inner workings of Indian politics, uncovering a clandestine funneling of US$2 billion by Indian corporations to political entities since 2018.

Approximately half of these funds were directed towards the ruling BJP. These revelations sparked public outcry, particularly with national elections looming over the horizon, projected to be the world’s most expensive, surpassing even the anticipated costs of the 2024 U.S. presidential election.

Fascinatingly, the Supreme Court of India directed the central bank of India to reveal donor identities. Despite the bank’s plea for an extension, the court denied it, setting a deadline of March 12, 2024 for submission. Additionally, the court instructed the Election Commission to publish these details by March 15, 2024 by 5 pm.

In the backdrop of opposition protests, denouncing it as a major corruption scandal involving corporate donations, Financial Action Task Force (FATF) is set to release its mutual evaluation report for India during the upcoming June 2024 plenary, right after the Indian elections.

Beyond the bond controversy, India faces scrutiny from international bodies such as the UN, American Bar Association, and Amnesty International for human rights violations, weak control related to Money Laundering and Terrorist Financing. The evaluation will gauge how effectively the global watchdog rates the world’s second-largest country in terms of adhering to global standards in combating financial crimes.

(Huzaima Bukhari & Dr Ikramul Haq, lawyers and partners of Huzaima, Ikram & Ijaz, are Adjunct Faculty at Lahore University of Management Sciences (LUMS), members Advisory Board and Visiting Senior Fellows of Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE) and Abdul Rauf Shakoori is a corporate lawyer based in the USA and an expert in ‘White Collar Crimes and Sanctions Compliance’)

Copyright Business Recorder, 2024

It is widely argued that an embittered Nawaz Sharif has gone into low profile since his party failed to get majority in the Feb 8 2024 general election.

In my view, however, he’s not out of public view as such if we take into account his active participation in recent Punjab government meetings at which not only did he convey to the participants his world view, he also issued directives to the provincial bureaucracy in relation to the ongoing and planned development projects in the country’s largest province.

Secondly, he met his party members from the Faisalabad Division and spoke at length about how looks at the current situation.

That he still laments or bemoans his ouster from the prime minister’s house in 2017, describing it as “gross injustice” is a fact. He’s been repeatedly telling people that if he had been allowed to complete his term the country would have progressed in ‘leaps and bounds’.

Nawaz Sharif, in my view, is preparing himself for the next general election, which can take place in less than two years in view of the gravity of challenges facing the country and the existence of a woefully weak coalition government, which cannot deal with the challenges of terrorism and economic impasse head-on owing to a variety of reasons.

The spurt in terrorist activities, including the killing of five Chinese engineers working on country’s mega hydropower project a day ago, clearly indicates the erosion of state writ on a brisk pace since the arrival of the present government, although the performance of the interim government led by Anwaarul Haq Kakar was not good either.

Relegating himself to a position of a veteran adviser or ataaleeq of Punjab chief minister Maryam Nawaz in view of the enormity of challenges was a good move that Nawaz Sharif made following the Feb 8 general election. The present government will surely fall.

Nawaz Sharif, however, will not be held responsible for its failure. In other words, circumstances have forced Nawaz Sharif to keep a low profile.

Zahoor Mahanti (Karachi)

Copyright Business Recorder, 2024

A few days ago, US Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs Donald Lu submitted a written testimony in the American Congress, saying the general elections in Pakistan seemed to be as per law but there had been ‘irregularities’ in how the results were compiled.

Donald Lu’s testimony had come ahead of his scheduled appearance in US Congress Foreign Affairs subcommittee. We all know that Mr Lu was the central figure of a controversy that seemed to have cost Imran Khan his government in 2022.

Therefore, the observations that he made about the credibility of the elections do not necessarily add to the stance of the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) that the election were held in fair, free and transparent manner. Except for Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), almost all parties that had entered the election fray have made allegations of vote rigging on an “unprecedented scale”.

In my view, the Feb 8 general elections had become highly controversial much before the nation actually went to the polls. The main reason behind this grotesque example of credibility erosion was Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf’s (PTI’s) lament through which it had been through which it had been conveying to the world that it had been deprived of a level playing field.

Depriving the party, perhaps the single largest party of the country, of a level playing field stemmed from a strategy aimed at dimming or eliminating the electoral prospects of the party.

No doubt, it had been an extremely difficult electioneering for the party, so when the Election Commission of Pakistan did not allow the party to use its iconic bat symbol, forcing its candidates to context the election as independent candidates, it was the straw that broke the camel’s back.

Embittered by the entire election exercise, which appeared to be shorn of democratic sanctity, the electorates therefore threw up an extremely divisive and polarized mandate.

I wonder why the global election monitoring bodies or individuals, including US official Lu, have not taken into consideration the pre-poll situation in Pakistan while preparing their reports about the authenticity or credibility of the elections.

Ahmad Raza (Karachi)

Copyright Business Recorder, 2024

LAHORE: An appellate tribunal (AT) on Monday sought replies from the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) on appeals of PTI President Pervez Elahi and his absconding son Moonis Elahi against rejection of their nomination papers for by-polls in Punjab.

The returning officers rejected the papers of Pervez Elahi from PP-32, Gujrat for not disclosing details of his assets and Moonis from PP-158, Lahore for being an absconder in multiple cases of alleged corruption.

The appellants’ counsel argued that the decisions of the ROs were not based on facts. He said Pervez Elahi submitted the same documents along with the nomination papers for the February 8 general election and his candidature was duly accepted by the RO concerned.

The counsel argued that the Supreme Court had allowed politicians to contest the elections in the country who were declared absconders by different courts in politically motivated cases.

He said the apex court declared that contesting elections was a fundamental right of every citizen.

He asked the tribunal to set aside the impugned decisions of the ROs and accepted the nomination papers of the appellants.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2024

ISLAMABAD: The election organisation has asked the government personnel and their immediate family members, who intend to use the postal ballot facility for by-elections on 23 seats of the Assemblies, to cast their votes not later than April 2, 2024.

This facility, under the law, has been extended to the persons in government service, members of armed forces and their spouses and children, as well as persons with physical disabilities, and persons who are imprisoned or held in custody, the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) said on Friday.

The aforementioned persons are eligible to vote through postal ballot under Section 93(1) of the Elections Act 2017.

By-elections are scheduled on 23 seats of the Assemblies on April 21, comprising of 19 seats vacated by those candidates who had won more than one seats in the last month’s general elections, and four seats that saw elections postponement due to the deaths of contesting candidates.

The by-polls would be held on the six seats of National Assembly, 12 seats of Punjab Assembly, two seats each of Balochistan Assembly and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Assembly, and one Sindh Assembly seat.

Of these seats, the general elections that were scheduled on February 8, on National Assembly’s seat NA-8 and KPA seat PK-22, were delayed due to the killing of a candidate who was contesting the polls on both these seats. Polls were also postponed on KPA seat PK-91 and PA seat PP-266 due to the deaths of the respective contestants ahead of February 8 general polls.

The remaining 19 seats that have been vacated by candidates who won more than one seats in the general polls, and where by-polls are being held, are: NA-44, NA-119, NA-132, NA-196, NA-207, PP-22, PP-32, PP-36, PP-54, PP-93, PP-139, PP-147, PP-149, PP-158, PP-164, PP-290, PB-20, PP-22 and PS-80.

The ECP is under fire from public and political circles as well as international stakeholders over allegedly massive rigging in February 8 general polls. The electoral body has rejected these allegations.

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LAHORE: Four senior leaders of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), who had lost their seats in the general elections held on February 8, are not in the race for the by-elections, as they had not submitted their nomination papers.

PML-N leaders Rana Sanaullah Khan, Khawaja Saad Rafique, Mian Javed Latif and Rana Mashhood Ahmad Khan had stayed away from the by-polls scheduled to be held on April 21.

In Punjab, for the National Assembly seats by-poll was scheduled in NA-119 Lahore-III and NA-132 Kasur-II. The seat of NA-119 was vacated by Punjab Chief Minister Maryam Nawaz while NA-132 was vacated by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.

The by-elections were also being held in different Punjab Assembly constituencies, including PP-22 Chakwal-Cum-Talagang, PP-32 Gujrat VI, PP-36 Wazirabad-II, PP-54 Narowal-I, PP-93 Bhakkar-V, PP-139 Sheikhpura-IV, PP-147 Lahore-III, PP-149 Lahore-V, PP-158 Lahore XIV, PP-164 Lahore-XX, PP-266 Rahim Yar Khan-XII, and PP-290 Dera Ghazi Khan-V.

The seat of PP-147 was vacated by the former Punjab Chief Minister Hamza Shehbaz while PP-149 was vacated by Istakam-e-Pakistan Party (IPP) President Abdul Aleem Khan.

It may be added that March 29, is the last date for withdrawal of candidature and publication of the revised list of candidates, and subsequently, election symbols will be allotted to contesting candidates on March 30.

On the other hand, the nomination papers of 12 candidates, including the candidates of the PML-N and Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) have been approved for NA-119. The Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) has approved the nomination papers of PML-N’s candidate Ali Pervez Malik of PML-N, and PTI’s candidates Shahzad Farooq and Nadeem Sherwani for the by-election in NA-119. The nomination papers of other candidates, including Ali Sarwar Gillani, Zarak Tanveer, Akmal Khan, Abdul Karim Khan, Asghar Ali, Ahmed Mughal, Muhammad Zaheer, Muhammad Nawaz and Mian Rohail Ashraf, have also been accepted.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2024

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan has expressed its desire to engage in meaningful discussions with the United States to address “misunderstandings” with regard to the country’s domestic situation and electoral laws.

Speaking at her weekly news briefing in response to media queries about the US Congressional hearing of alleged rigging in Pakistan’s February 8 general elections, Foreign Office spokesperson Mumtaz Zahra Baloch said that during the hearing some statements were made, which were intrusive and reflected a misunderstanding of Pakistan’s domestic situation and electoral laws.

“We hope to engage in meaningful discussions with the United States to address these misunderstandings. We also hope that the US Congress will play a positive and constructive role in strengthening Pakistan-US ties and developing avenues of mutually beneficial cooperation,” the spokesperson said.

Lu submits written testimony in US Congress: ‘Despite complaints Pakistan polls were as per law’

She said Pakistan respects the prerogative of legislative bodies to discuss international issues. She; however, said the deliberations of these legislative bodies should contribute to promoting positive dynamics in bilateral ties based on mutual respect and understanding.

US Assistant Secretary of State Donald Lu, a central figure in the cipher controversy, testified before a Congressional panel on Thursday about US-Pakistan ties in the wake of allegations of rigging in the February 8 general elections, as he told the panel that if the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) failed to investigate allegations of irregularities in the polls, it will retard the bilateral relationship.

When her response was sought on Lu’s remarks about the Pakistan-Iran gas pipeline project, she said that it is the sovereign decision of the Pakistan government to move forward on the project and it will start work on construction of the pipeline. “At this point, there is no room for any discussion or waiver from any third party for the construction of the pipeline inside Pakistan’s territory,” she made it clear when her response was sought on the top US diplomat’s statement that Pakistan has not yet sought any waiver.

However, she added that Pakistan remained in contact with American partners, and “we have conveyed to them the importance of energy security for Pakistan’s future and the important role that the Pakistan-Iran pipeline plays in the overall context of Pakistan’s energy security.”

To Lu’s remarks that the US continues to monitor the weapons it provides to Pakistan especially F-16 to ensure their correct use, she underlined that the hearing was an internal event of the United States where the Congress and the administration were engaged in a conversation.

As far as Pakistan is concerned, she added that Pakistan remains in dialogue with the United States on all aspects of our mutual interest and that includes cooperation in the realm of security and defence. “We will continue to engage with them (the US) with respect to our defence needs and the regional situation that Pakistan faces. And we hope they will understand our concerns and requirements,” she added.

To another query, she said that the case of Shakil Afridi is being dealt with according to the laws of Pakistan and the country’s position on his case has not changed. “He (Afridi) is in prison as a result of the legal processes and a decision by the courts of Pakistan. Pakistan’s position with regard to the case of Shakil Afridi hasn’t changed,” she added.

About Dr Aafia Siddiqui, she said that Pakistan has remained in contact with the US State Department, the Department of Justice and the Bureau of Prisons to extend all possible support for Dr Aafia Siddiqui for her welfare and to explore all options with regard to her continued stay in the United States.

Commenting on the 18th March cross-border operation in Afghanistan, she said the operation was not targeted against the people, institutions or the military of Afghanistan. “We respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Afghanistan and look forward to working together to find joint solutions in countering terrorism and preventing any terrorist organisation from sabotaging bilateral relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan,” she said.

She added that Pakistan carried out intelligence-based anti-terrorist operations in the border regions inside Afghanistan and the prime target of the operation was terrorists belonging to Hafiz Gul Bahadur Group, which along with Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has been responsible for multiple terrorist attacks inside Pakistan.

She said Pakistan has on multiple occasions shared concrete evidence and intelligence with the Afghan authorities about the presence of terrorist sanctuaries inside Afghanistan. “It is a reality that terrorists especially the TTP have their basis in Afghanistan. This is not just Pakistan’s assertion but also confirmed by the international observers including reports by the United Nations,” she said.

She said that Pakistan is looking forward to work together to find joint solutions in countering terrorism and preventing any terrorist entity from sabotaging bilateral relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan. “We should be partners in peace and partners against terrorism,” she added.

About the terrorist attack in Gwadar port, she said that Pakistan’s security agencies successfully eliminated the terrorists involved. She added that Pakistan remains committed to protecting all projects under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) including the Gwadar port. “Pakistan believes that these terror organisations, including BLA, are a threat to the entire region. And we would like to work with our neighbouring countries in defeating this terror threat,” she added.

When asked about the Indian Home Minister Amit Shah’s recent remarks that Azad Kashmir is part of India, the spokesperson said these are unwarranted statements and based on fallacy. She said Jammu and Kashmir is an internationally-recognised dispute whose final disposition is to be made by the Kashmiri people in accordance with the UN Security Council resolutions.

AFP adds: Government dismissed a warning from the United States that relations between the two countries would suffer if it did not probe irregularities in last month’s election.

Mumtaz Zahra Baloch, the spokeswoman for Foreign Ministry, said the warning from Donald Lu, the top US diplomat for South Asia, “reflects a misunderstanding of Pakistan’s political situation and electoral laws”.

“We hope to engage in political discussion with the United States to address misunderstandings so that our two countries continue to move forward for regional cooperation,” she told reporters in the capital, Islamabad. Lu told lawmakers on Wednesday that the United States had “serious concerns” about the conduct of the February 8 election and ongoing disruptions of media and social media, including a prolonged shutdown of X, formerly known as Twitter, and called for an investigation.

“The Election Commission of Pakistan, should it find that these irregularities are substantiated, should rerun elections where there’s been interference,” Lu told a hearing of a House Foreign Affairs subcommittee.

Lu said the United States was not considering any major new military sales to Pakistan, a Cold War ally whose army and intelligence apparatus has long played a dominant role in politics and whose past links with Afghanistan’s Taliban soured ties with Washington.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2024

WASHINGTON: US Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs Donald Lu has submitted a written testimony in the American Congress, saying the general elections in Pakistan seemed to be as per law but there had been ‘irregularities’ in how the results were compiled.

Donald Lu’s testimony comes ahead of his scheduled appearance in US Congress Foreign Affairs subcommittee, which will take place later today.

The four-page testimony says that the US observed multiple irregularities in the election. “We were particularly concerned about electoral abuses and violence that happened in the weeks leading up to the elections,” he wrote.

Donald Lu said there had been terror attacks against police, politicians, and political gatherings. He also said that journalists had been harassed by party supporters as well.

The US assistant secretary also said that many political leaders were unable to register parties, as well as, specific candidates.

Lu said that the irregularities were also continued on the polling day when international observers could not witness counting in half of the country’s constituencies. He also referred to the shutdown of mobile internet on the day of the election as well. “More than 5,000 independent observers were in the field. Their organization’s conclusion was that the conduct of the election was largely competitive and orderly, while noting some irregularities in the compilation of results,” he said.

Lu; however, also noted that over 60 million people had voted and had been given a range of choices, saying three different parties have formed governments in Pakistan.

Calling Pakistan an important partner of the US, Lu said that the two countries had shared goals against terrorism. “The Pakistani people deserve a country that is peaceful, democratic, and prosperous. We are working every day to support that vision,” he added.

ISLAMABAD: The Supreme Court ordered for re-poll in PB-50 Qilla Abdullah, Balochistan as all the parties including the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) agreed on the proposal.

A three-judge bench, headed by Chief Justice Qazi Faez Isa, on Monday, heard the case.

The court annulled the ECP’s earlier order of re-polling at six polling stations and ordered the electoral watchdog to conduct fresh polls in the constituency as per the law.

Awami National Party (ANP)’s Zamurd Khan challenged the ECP’s order and contended that the turnout at many polling stations of the constituency remained low.

The ANP leader’s claim of low turnout could be termed as the outcome of the several acts of terrorism that unfolded in Balochistan and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa when the general elections were just around the corner.

The week following the elections in Balochistan was marred by protests from political and religious parties that took to the streets against alleged election irregularities including rigging, manipulation of results, and undue delays in the announcement of poll results.

Despite calls for restraint and appeals for dialogue, political and religious groups had persisted in holding rallies and demonstrations and had intensified their demands for electoral transparency and accountability.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2024