"Premiums were adjusted down since the benchmark prices in London rose," the trader said. "Even so, it is hard to export since the stockpile is too low and mini harvest hasn't come yet."
The exact move on Thursday remains unclear. The contract may open lower and retreat towards 3,521 ringgit or open high but close below 3,634 ringgit. A consolidation around 3,634 ringgit is highly anticipated.
Palm oil is expected to retest this strong barrier. However, it may fail again and start a much shallower correction than the former one from 3,631 ringgit.
Regardless of the wave structure, the rally looks full of momentum. Support is at 3,673 ringgit, a break below which could cause a fall into a range of 3,545-3,624 ringgit.
On the daily chart, palm oil has cleared a resistance at 3,606 ringgit, the 23.6% retracement on the uptrend from 2,691 ringgit to 3,888 ringgit. It is likely to gain more to 3,713 ringgit.
On the daily chart, a retracement analysis on the uptrend from 2,691 ringgit to 3,888 ringgit reveals a similar resistance at 3,606 ringgit, the 23.6% level.
The benchmark palm oil contract for April delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange rose 108 ringgit, or 3.14%, to 3,543 ringgit ($872.88) a tonne during early trade.
"Buyers are waiting for proof from CBP (the US customs authority) before taking further action... We are making contingency plans to look for alternative suppliers if the situation worsens," one trader said.
A break below 3,322 ringgit may cause a fall into 3,208-3,260 ringgit range. On the daily chart, the contract is trying to stabilize around a rising trendline.
A drop in imports, after hitting multi-year highs in December, will be the main deterrent for stockpiles to rise, said Sathia Varqa, co-founder of Singapore-based Palm Oil Analytics.
Despite its strength, the current rise may end in a wide range of 3,524-3,716 ringgit, as the fall from 3,888 ringgit adoped a five-wave mode, which suggests the second round of drop.
A retracement analysis on the fall from 3,888 ringgit to 3,160 ringgit reveals a target of 3,438 ringgit, the 38.2% level, which is near 3,426 ringgit.