LONDON: Cobalt prices have crashed over the last six months with demand growth slowing just as a wave of new supply washes through the market.
After hitting a four-year high of $40 per lb in May last year, cobalt has slumped to $17 per lb, extending a long history of boom-and-bust price cycles. There were hopes that this time might be different, thanks to rising demand from the electric vehicle (EV) sector but not all battery inputs are equal when it comes to the bullish narrative around “green” metals.
Cobalt has lost share to lithium as the Chinese EV market in particular pivots towards non-cobalt battery chemistry. Fears of under-supply have been replaced by expectations of surplus over the coming years. The abrupt turnaround in both narrative and price has led to a surge in trading activity on the CME cobalt contract as producers and consumers respond to the shifting landscape.
Cobalt’s fortunes are still tied to the EV sector but the relationship is changing. Sales of new energy vehicles rose by 56% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2022 and usage of cobalt in EV batteries jumped by over 60% over the full year, according to the Cobalt Institute’s latest quarterly report.
That eye-watering growth rate would be stronger still were it not for a shift towards non-cobalt battery chemistries, led by China, the world’s largest EV market. Lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) batteries now represent around 30% of the total market, a share that is likely to grow as auto-makers seek to lower costs in an increasingly competitive arena.
The changing mix of chemistries explains why lithium prices are still holding their highs while cobalt prices have been on the slide. Cobalt usage has also been dented by falling sales of electronic items such as mobile phones and a slow COVID recovery in the aerospace sector. Overall demand growth fell sharply to 7.8% last year from 19.3% in 2021 and will likely slow again to 5.9% this year, according to Macquarie Bank.
(“Commodities Compendium”, Dec. 8, 2022) Supply, by contrast, is growing fast thanks to restarted capacity in the Democratic Republic of Congo and a new generation of Indonesian nickel plants producing cobalt as a by-product.
The status of the giant Tenke Fungurume mine in the Congo is a supply wild card. Operations are continuing for now but exports remain blocked by a dispute between state mining company Gecamines and China’s CMOC Group.
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