Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party could lose snap elections that are widely expected if the government's controversial postal reform bills don't go through parliament this week, a senior party leader said on Sunday.
An upper house vote on the legislation, the core of Prime Minister Junichiro's reform platform but vehemently opposed by LDP rebels, is expected later this week, although analysts and some politicians say the timing could slip.
Koizumi has said a rejection of his bid to privatise the postal delivery, savings and insurance system, including the world's biggest bank, would amount to a vote of no confidence in his leadership - a veiled threat to call a general election.
Asked if he thought the bills would be rejected, LDP upper house executive Toranosuke Katayama said: "I think there is a 50-50 chance.
"If it is rejected now, there is a high possibility of a snap election. If there is an election with the LDP split, I don't think we can get the support of the people, so there is a chance that we will lose," he told a television programme.
Katayama is among the party executives who have been trying to persuade LDP upper house members to back the prime minister.
"What I am saying is, is it all right to create such a political vacuum ... at a time when there are so many domestic and diplomatic problems?" he asked.
Koizumi has devoted much of his premiership to the issue of postal privatisation, arguing that the $3 trillion in deposits controlled by Japan Post is distorting the financial system.
But many LDP politicians have traditionally counted on support from influential rural postmasters to mobilise voters and on funds funnelled from postal savings to woo constituencies.
Ruling coalition officials have said they are aiming to take a vote on the legislation on August 5. The current session of parliament ends on August 13.
Tetsuro Yano, who is in charge of parliamentary affairs in the upper house for the LDP, said the ruling coalition was still aiming at that schedule.
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