At the crossroads

That President Obamas new strategy for Afghan war is bereft of any regard for the sensitivities of the people of Pakistan and their government; we came to know of it rather early in the day. Early this week, in their interlocutions with our civilian and military leadership the visiting Holbrooke-Mullen duo not only remained stuck to the stance that al Qaeda operates from the Pakistani soil and drone attacks cannot be stopped they had something to add: the elements in ISI are helping the Taliban.
Pakistan does not agree to all this but its denial could never make it to the front page. Not any more; the visitors were told in the most unvarnished language that enough is enough.
Foreign Minister Qureshis assertion that there is a "gap" on the viability of drone attacks between the two sides and that future co-operation is subject to being respectful to and trustful of each other was greeted by the people and political parties across the board with warmth rarely shown to the officials.
Of the factors that made the Zardari government revise its thinking and take a stiff stand, the most pertinent are the accumulating resentment against drone strikes and the Obama administrations somersault on its electoral promise to take up the Kashmir problem with New Delhi.
Of course, there is no great love for al Qaeda and people of Pakistan would like to see its hideouts hit hard by drones. But what is happening on the ground is just the opposite: while the innocent people get killed and their houses destroyed, the militants keep moving eastward taking Talibanisation further deep into Pakistan.
This counter-productivity tends to bring out the futility of any secret understanding if there was one. Over time, as anti-Musharrafism grows, the drone attacks are increasingly being seen as violation of Pakistans airspace - though a few still see their usefulness, like President Zardari who would like Washington to let Pakistan fly these killing machines.
That the Americans have assured him that drones will not target Balochistan, is hardly a justification to condone the missile strikes in FATA. However, the fundamental issue from Pakistans perspective on the war on terror is the unresolved problem of Kashmir.
Undeniably, the Pakistani security agencies see the world through the Indian prism; if Pakistan has not been able to move its high-quality forces to the western border the inhibiting factor is the massive presence of Indian military on the eastern border.
So, many had knit their brows when the Obama administration took out India from the portfolio allotted to Richard Holbrooke; a feeling further accentuated by his recent contention in New Delhi that he is not a mediator on Kashmir and that India is a natural stakeholder in Afghanistan.
Speculation is gaining ground in Pakistan that ultimately, the United States would like to hand over the Afghan imbroglio to India. Should such a state of affairs continue it is quite possible that the lobby advocating Talibanisation as an alternative to Indian hegemony would have the last say in Pakistan.
There is no military solution to the Afghan problem, and those who insist there is one, have not read history. In Barack Obamas victory the people saw a multi-faceted US approach for winning the war against terrorism. But that probably was a false dawn; the new strategy evolved by the new administration, disappointingly, turned out to be a military-specific solution via a bloody campaign - just the opposite of winning the battle of hearts and minds.
May be some battles have been won in Afghanistan by the foreign troops but the war goes on, its expected outcome gradually tilting in favour of the Taliban. By inducting India into this war the US administration would not only be sharpening Taliban determination to fight it would also shift the balance of Pakistani public opinion and the official backing now available to US in the other direction. The stiff attitude exhibited by Islamabad to its American visitors was a warning that Washington would ignore at the risk of a wider conflict in the region.