Pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi could be released in April, most likely after Myanmar's New Year water festival, a source close to the reconciliation process said Friday.
Speculation has been rife in Myanmar that Aung San Suu Kyi's release might coincide with the festival, but the source said the military government would probably not risk turning the event into a mass public celebration.
"I would be very surprised if she is released before the water festival, as it is not the best moment with people already celebrating in the street", the source said.
"After (the festival) it will be another story."
United Nations envoy "Razali (Ismail) said he wished for her to be released during this period and it is also what she wants," the source said.
Aung San Suu Kyi and senior members of her National League for Democracy party have remained under detention since her motorcade was ambushed on May 30 last year in an attack widely blamed on the military regime.
"Although there is no concrete sign right now (of an imminent release) she really should be out before May 30, something has to take place," before the one-year anniversary of the ambush, said the source.
A Western diplomat agreed that Aung San Suu Kyi's release could take place in late April.
"During the festival it would be astonishing (if she were released) as traditionally nothing happens here, and it makes more sense to release her afterwards because of security concerns," the diplomat said, alluding to Aung San Suu Kyi's immense popularity.
"Still, it is difficult to tell as we don't know how far negotiations have gone," he said, referring to secret talks between the Nobel peace prize winner and the junta.
Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) secretary-general Ong Keng Yong told AFP that if it materialises, a potential April release for Aung San Suu Kyi would be a positive step in the reconciliation process.
"We definitely hope that something positive will come and we want to stress that things like this (Suu Kyi's release) will bring about a more positive climate, a more positive atmosphere, but we will wait, I can't be sure," said Ong.
"We believe that the leadership in Myanmar is not insensitive to what is required to bring about national reconciliation and progress in the country."
Analysts have seen hopeful signs that since December Aung San Suu Kyi has been in monthly discussions with the second-in-command of military intelligence, Major General Kyaw Win, who reports directly to senior general and junta number one Than Shwe.
They also stressed that Yangon might feel under pressure to make a goodwill gesture ahead of the next meeting of the "Bangkok process", in which a dozen countries including Myanmar plan to discuss the democratisation process.
Aung San Suu Kyi's release is also seen as a pre-requisite for the junta's planned national convention to be attended by the regime, opposition parties and ethnic minorities from across Myanmar.
No date has yet been set for the convention, which is supposed to be followed by the drafting of a new constitution ahead of "free and fair" election.
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