The 2019-20 coffee crop in top-grower Brazil is expected to reach 59.3 million 60-kg bags, according to a report published by the US Department of Agriculture attache in Sao Paulo. While this forecast represents an 8.5% decline from the record-large 2018-19 crop, 2019-20 is an "off year" in arabica's biennial production cycle in Brazil and was therefore widely expected to yield less coffee than the previous year.
Still, market participants were widely expecting a massive Brazilian crop for an "off year" and the attache's forecast is at the higher end of estimates. Government agency Conab expects output to reach 50.9 million bags, Rabobank forecasts 57.6 million bags, while trader Comexim pegs the figure at 58.2 million. According to the attache, production of arabica beans is expected to fall 15% to reach 41 million bags as yields decline during the crop's off year. Robusta production, meanwhile, is expected to reach 18.3 million bags, an increase of 1.7 million bags.
Brazilian coffee exports are expected to total 36.82 million bags, the attache said, compared to the record 39.72 million bags seen in 2018-19. Domestic coffee consumption is expected to increase by 1.5% compared to last year to reach 23.53 million bags. Ending stocks in my 2019-20 are expected to decline nearly one million bags to 2.88 million bags, the report said.
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