SYDNEY: The Australian and New Zealand dollars remained vulnerable to further losses on Monday as speculation about higher US interest rates pressured risk sentiment, while tighter Australian policy failed to provide any assistance.
The Aussie was pinned at $0.6360, having slid 2.3% last week and away from the recent top of $0.6523.
Support lies around $0.6340 ahead of the October trough of $0.6271.
The kiwi dollar idled at $0.5893, after dropping 1.9% last week and failing to crack resistance at $0.6000.
There is some support under $0.5880 ahead of its recent low of $0.5774.
Last week’s retreat came despite the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) lifting rates to a 12-year high of 4.35%, with markets seeing scant chance of another move anytime soon.
Futures imply a 90% probability of a steady outcome at the RBA’s December meeting, and around a 60% chance of no move in February as well.
An RBA official on Monday emphasised that bringing inflation down was proving to be a longer process than hoped, but would not be drawn on the outlook for policy.
The risk of another hike could shift should data on wages and jobs out this week surprise in either direction.
Wage growth is seen accelerating to an annual 3.9% in the third quarter, which would be the fastest pace since early 2011, and any outcome at 4.0% or higher would likely add to the case for another hike in December.
Australia, NZ dollars suffer rough week, RBA rate outlook little help
Likewise, employment is seen rising by 18,000 in October, following September’s surprisingly soft 6,700 increase, though unemployment is still forecast to tick up to 3.7% as job gains fail to match growth in labour supply.
The Aussie is not without fundamental support, particularly form iron ore prices which have hit a two-year high on resilient demand in China.
The ore is Australia’s single biggest export earner and the gains should add to the country’s sizeable trade surplus.
“Australia continues to record trade, current account and budget surpluses, and the contrast with the US twin deficits remains striking,” noted Nomura economist Andrew Ticehurst.
While Fitch last week affirmed Australia’s AAA rating, Moody’s downgraded its outlook for the US rating to negative.
“The AUD has certainly underperformed EUR and USD over the past six months, and we think this underperformance is not justified by the underlying fundamentals,” argued Ticehurst, recommending investors go long AUD against both the euro and the dollar.
Comments