The great masoor mayhem

One of the mysteries of Pakistan’s 24-hour news cycle – and its propensity for constant indignation – is the uneven airtime dedicated to some kitchen essentials over others. For example, anecdotal evidence would suggest that twenty percent rise in sugar or garlic prices draws far more ire than a 100 percent rise in prices of masoor daal. Do the media have a softer corner for lentil importers than for sugar hoarders? Or worse still, is there a daal mafia and has it co-opted the news industry?

That’s of course in jest. But the rise and rise in daal prices – specifically masoor daal – is a story not sufficiently covered by most news outlets. The relentless rise has knocked out every other kitchen essential in the Sensitive Price Index over the past year, even edible oil and vegetables (that were purportedly washed away by floods).

Although Pakistan meets over 60 percent of its pulses and lentils demand through import, the remarkable ride of masoor daal cannot be explained away by dollar alone. Yes, the currency depreciation has brought local prices under pressure, but other pulses/lentils such as moong are also imported, but have not nearly followed a similar trajectory. The cash margin requirement imposed by the central bank earlier during the calendar year is also a likely candidate yet fails the exclusivity test. If cash margin is pricing out imports, why has turmoil hit masoor market the most?

Which brings us to international markets. In absence of a global lentils price tracker or index, analysis must make do with proxies. Since Pakistan’s pulses and lentils market is import driven, it may help to first isolate the dollar effect. Here is an interesting tidbit: over the past two years, retail price of moong daal in Pakistan has fallen from a peak of $1.78 per kg in May-20, to just 90 cents last month! Meanwhile, price of other major pulses/lentils such as chana/gram and mash have remained spectacularly stable over last 24 months, staying range bound in a 5 – 15 percent narrow band. Meanwhile, masoor price in $ has risen from just 90 cents to over $1.50 as of Aug-22!

What gives? Since the pandemic bottom, global consumers have rediscovered a love for the crimson lentil, only further amplified by its purported nutritious and immunity boosting attributes on a planet threatened by disease. The supply-demand mismatch in the world markets has become so exacerbated that world’s second largest producer – India – has suspended all tariffs on imports to build local buffers and discourage price gouging. Contrast this with the wizards at SBP who think suppression of import led economy starts with imposing cash margin requirements on daal! “After all, why don’t they eat cake, instead?”

That’s not to say only policymakers are at fault. Consumer behavior has been remarkably sticky in the face of rapid daal-flation. While masoor prices doubled during past 12 months, moong prices have been sufficiently stable, yet price movement suggest the two varieties are nowhere close to being perfect substitutes in consumers’ view. Whether that says something about consumer resilience or market clearing prices is best left to market experts. But suffice to say the conspicuous absence of the great masoor mayhem from 24-hour news cycle isn’t entirely media’s fault either.