US oil may fall to $81.65

SINGAPORE: US oil may fall to $81.65 per barrel, as it has broken a support at $84.52.

The break opened the way towards the next support at $81.65. A rising channel suggests a target zone of $78.97-$81.65. The current fall is believed to be driven by a wave iv, the fourth wave of five-wave cycle from the Dec. 2, 2021 low of $62.43.

This wave may end above $78.97, to be then reversed by an upward wave v. The big gap on Friday confirms a drastic swing of the market sentiment from extreme optimism to pessimism.

Crude prices edge up, with supply concerns still dominant

On the hourly chart, a retracement analysis on the rise from $66.04 reveals a temporary support at $82.75, which triggered a weak bounce that may end below $84.72.

A study on the relation between wave (a) and wave (b) reveals a 61.8% ratio, which indicates the current drop may at least extend into $76.97-$79.56 range.

Each reader should consult his or her own professional or other advisers for business, financial or legal advice regarding the products mentioned in the analyses.