The current Afghan situation is to be seen on a bigger canvas not limited to events after the Soviet invasion in 1979 or the new World Order in the post 9/11 period. There are very few periods of continued political stability in the area now forming Afghanistan. Nomadic and pseudo-tribal aspirations having very strong nationalistic feeling constitute hallmark of the people of this area. Forms are different; however, in substance, people of this area have a particular manner of governance. Over centuries the masses and groups not directly engaged in wars, feuds and battles have emigrated to economically stable areas. The Indian subcontinent being a settled and prosperous landmass in comparison to areas of Central Asia and Iran has always been the first choice for settlement as it provided economic sustenance.
Over centuries people have left this area essentially for economic reasons emanating from political instability. Like all societies, a very limited part of the population is directly involved in political upheaval. However, the whole economy stands paralysed for decades that results in political instability leaving no choice for the masses other than emigration to the nearest prosperous place. Prior to 1947 the whole sub-continent used to absorb this natural immigration. In the post-1947 situation, Pakistan as a state is directly and solely affected by the instability and war in Afghanistan. Now the movement that used to traverse through Torkham to Panipat and then the whole Indian subcontinent has now turned southwards towards areas that constitute Pakistan. In the natural course, effectively there is no way to stop this movement unless there is economic stability in Afghanistan. All forms of political solutions whether Karzai, Ashraf Ghani, Taliban or Northern Alliance will evaporate within days if economic sustenance is not available to the majority of people of Afghanistan who are not interested in any political exercise.
Afghanistan is a sovereign state and we have no right to comment on its economics or politics. It is correct to say that Pakistan is not a part of any political development in Afghanistan, however on the basis of certain facts, ground realities, historical perspective and attitude of the international community, economic instability in Afghanistan has direct implications on Pakistan’s economy. It has been observed that Pakistan media, international press and others are repeating the mistake of limiting the subject of Afghanistan to politics only, whereas in substance the people of Afghanistan are expected to face grave economic crises unless there is something like a ‘Marshall Plan’ for reconstruction of Afghanistan. This crisis will spill over to Pakistan and in the present circumstances Pakistan is not capable of sustaining the pressure it has borne since 1979. This aspect has been discussed briefly in the following paragraphs.
It has been reported that the US and its allies have spent over USD 2 trillion during the war since the invasion of Afghanistan after 9/11. Being an Accountant I am really concerned about the veracity of this huge sum especially for the reason that the information which is available publicly reflects that there has been no mentionable institutional or infrastructure development in Afghanistan. For example, there is no information of establishment or development of any reasonable University in Afghanistan or improvement of the one or two existing Universities. This issue raises serious questions on the financial management of the NATO forces and the contractors working in Afghanistan. This effectively means that around 40 million people of Afghanistan are poorer as compared to what they were 20 years ago despite an expenditure of the huge sum referred above. If it is so then the world community should reconsider its allocation of resources for poor countries and poverty alleviation. International economic indicators reveal that the per capita income of the average Afghan has not increased over the period.
The US and allies are not responsible for it and this priority is to be decided by the Afghans whether or not they are Taliban or people who ruled before Taliban. The question before the international community is whether or not 40 million people can be abandoned in a desperate economic situation. This requires a completely different paradigm to handle the issue in Afghanistan as the international community and Pakistan cannot limit their strategy to a political solution. If the economic catastrophe is not taken into account before it arises, Pakistan and the international community will face a serious economic crisis in Afghanistan which may give rise to lawlessness leading to terrorism within and outside that country. This requires a summary analysis of the economics of Afghanistan.
During the period of war from 2001 to 2021, there was inflow, directly or indirectly, to the Afghan society out of the aforesaid sum of USD 2 trillion therefore the economic needs of the people and the state were being met. This was also the situation during 1979 to 1988. In other words, it can be stated that ‘war along with US support’ during the earlier period and ‘war against the US’ in the later period financed the Afghan economy. In that sense it was not a bad deal for the Afghans. However, that process has stopped after the surrender of Kabul in mid-August 2021 and the Biden Administration is effectively not ready to burden the US Treasury anymore on this account. Now there has to be some process whereby Afghanistan is able to sustain a population of 40 million people who have seen continuous wars at least since 1979.
As a country, Afghanistan is heavily reliant on international aid. There is a net trade deficit of around 5 to 6 billion USD each year which is funded by international aid. Exports are represented by agricultural produce or cottage industry like carpets and rugs. There is no sustainable employment for a majority of a fast-growing population, a bulk of them being less than 30 years old. This demographic and social condition is a sure recipe for mass migration—formally or otherwise. The only place to emigrate is Pakistan. This cannot be stopped in a real sense.
The government in its official papers only accounts for persons who reside as Afghan Refugees in camps. However, as Pakistanis we all know that there is a reasonably high volume of immigration not accounted for in the government records. On account of social, religious and ethnic reasons this formal and informal migration cannot be stopped. This is a natural course that has been going on for centuries and will continue unless economic sustenance is provided to the people of Afghanistan.
The emerging profound prominence of China in the new World Order and the revival of land routes for East-West trade being the new Silk Route has given a new shape to the economies of the region, including China, Central Asian Republics, Russia, Iran, Turkey and Pakistan. There is complete homogeneity in the thought process of these countries that economic routes have to be developed with sufficient benefits to the population of the region. In that ‘scheme’ Afghanistan cannot be abandoned. There is a misconception that this integration is against the interest of any particular bloc. In the present world, supremacy rests on economic not military strength. The countries named above are all reasonably well settled and have responsible governments which are fully aware of the aspirations of their people. In that stable region there cannot be an island of instability. The manner in which the government in Afghanistan has acted after the takeover of Kabul reflects that these economic realities will be taken into account in future, as the current events have clearly established that there will be no more foreign funding for Afghanistan as was done in a different manner in the past.
Afghanistan’s economy is very heavily reliant on the port of Karachi which has been a trade route for centuries. In the past, there used to be organised arrangements in the form of a branch of an Afghani bank in Karachi for undertaking that trade. It is desired that leaving aside the past, a different kind of economic relationship be developed between the two countries, which is based on economic and social ties, not necessarily political considerations. Pakistan can provide technical support in the reconstruction of Afghanistan as we are socially and demographically close to the people of that area.
To conclude, it is stated that Pakistan cannot be isolated in the process of Afghan resettlement as the primary issue in Afghanistan relates to economic sustenance of 40 million people. In the present circumstances Pakistan cannot afford, formal or informal, any mass influx of refugees from Afghanistan.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2021
Comments
Comments are closed.