TOKYO: Japanese shares are expected to recover and reach a 30-year peak by the end of year as an acceleration of vaccinations after initial delays helps the economy to reopen, according to respondents in a Reuters poll.
The median estimate in the May. 10-25 poll of 21 analysts and fund managers forecast the benchmark Nikkei index would gain just over 9% from Monday’s close of 28,364.61 to reach 31,000 by the end of December.
That is about 1% above its 30-year peak of 30,714 hit in February, and would represent a 13% gain for the year. It is higher than a forecast of 30,750 in the previous poll in February.
Japanese shares have stagnated over the past three months, hurt by a slow rollout of Covid-19 vaccines, cautious earnings guidance and the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) effective tapering in its stock buying.
Still, most market players expected those negative factors to fade.
A mass vaccination programme has just started in Tokyo and Osaka, and is likely to make companies more optimistic about earnings.
As for the BoJ, it has mostly stayed away from markets since April but has indicated it is prepared to buy aggressively if necessary. Japan’s manufacturers have already been reaping the benefit of a global economic recovery, with a shortage of semiconductors helping various electronic parts makers.
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