The PM’s Agri Transformation Plan is being hailed as “revolutionary” for the sector, with catch phrases such as “Agriculture for Food changing Pakistan” being thrown around to get the momentum going. As PTI’s government gears up to go in full election-mode, it is only natural that the purse strings shall be loosened to get the growth going. But will it work?
The first iteration – the Rs 309 billion PM’s Agriculture Emergency Program announced as part of PTI’s first federal budget - clearly went missing in action, to warrant a second incarnation. The clarity around program’s objectives this time, such as achieving self-sufficiency in food and feed production within 7 years, is laudable. Yet, it is worth asking whether PTI has figured out the nuts and bolts to do the things right this time?
It appears not. While the leadership for any reform agenda must come from the top, federal bodies have little legislative empowerment to influence policy change in agriculture sector under the current constitutional arrangement. Although the Centre is usually very keen to foot fifty percent of the bill for populist initiatives that promise ROI in election year, the disconnect of “capacity versus empowerment” between the centre and the provinces means the program may fail to offer dividends, both political and economic.
Why? Because barring certain exceptions in Punjab, the infrastructure for research & development in agriculture exists mostly at the federal level, not provinces. Consider how Pakistan Agriculture Research Council and its attached departments such as National Agriculture Research Centre (NARC), and PARC Agrotech Company, operate under the National Food Security & Research ministry, with little authority to lead change. Consider:
Although NARC is praised as a world class institution, its research efforts take place in silos and oft-go ignored. For example, a scan of daily newspapers over past 5 years would show innumerable claims of high-yielding seed varieties developed at NARC that failed to be commercialized, as NARC wields little influence to push its agenda where real constitutional powers lie: namely, the provinces.
The predicament of NFS&R is worse still. Many believe that the ministry should have altogether been abolished post devolution to avoid duplication and unnecessary spending. However, concerns for national food security ensured that NFS&R has managed to outlive the arrow of devolution, even as provinces have made efforts to build capacity and execute development programs in certain areas such as livestock, dairy, fishery, and even oilseeds.
While some may insist that provincial capacity does not eliminate need for a centralized infrastructure – especially since it can play an instrumental role in bringing smaller provinces at par – has the centre performed well in its exclusive domains? The answer is an unfortunate and a resounding no.
From livestock, to agricultural machinery, or land utilization, Pakistan has not seen any nationwide efforts for agri-census since 18th amendment that could have helped build a picture of changing agricultural trends across the country. Mind you, while provinces may undertake survey exercises at their end, nationwide census remains completely under federal purview. From count of livestock population, to crop-wise consumption of fertilizer, to conversion of rural land to housing societies, Pakistan’s agri-policymaking relies purely on guesstimates. The result? A recent comment by an agricultural expert, that Pakistan “may be importing more doses for artificial insemination than the number of breedable livestock animals”. (For more read BR Research’s interview with Aamer Hayat Bhandara, published on Monday, 24 May, 2021).
That’s no small claim, and indicates how “revolutionary” policymaking consists mostly of glitz and brags devoid of any on-ground research. Another example is a recent claim by the new SAPM on agriculture to double the area under maize crop in coming years, without offering an explanation as to where the additional one million hectares of land would come from. Or consider his insistence that Pakistani growers should switch from basmati to coarse rice cultivation given the latter’s export potential, while failing to realize that 75 percent of basmati production feeds domestic consumption. (For more, read BR Research’s recent interview with Hamid Malik, published on Friday, 28 May, 2021).
Then there is the dismal performance of the federal ministry itself, which has been failing to put out timely statistics and annual reports (see illustration). A cursory review of NFS&R’s website would show that its reporting has become increasingly irregular over the past three years. And when it finally uploaded its Year Book for the FY20, it was a reproduced version of the Year Book for FY19.
The result? A bloated organogram that resembles a traditional Pakistani family business: over-staffed and under-funded. It is no surprise that whatever little funding that NFS&R and its attached departments receive go towards paying the salaries and benefits of its oversized and demotivated staff. Even so, the unquenched bureaucratic thirst for more power persists, exhibited in transfer of Central Cotton Committee from Commerce Division to NFS&R under last political regime. Lest we forget, NFS&R’s mandate is food security, and cotton is anything but.
Before PTI goes about revolutionizing Pakistan’s agriculture, it would do both itself and the country great service by taking stock of state of affairs at the ministry. Despite its impressive infrastructure and institutional memory, NFS&R has precious little will to lead the change from the front. Either overhaul the ministry, or let the provinces drive the change.
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