ANL 34.10 Decreased By ▼ -0.15 (-0.44%)
ASC 13.65 Increased By ▲ 0.30 (2.25%)
ASL 23.40 Increased By ▲ 0.80 (3.54%)
AVN 85.60 Increased By ▲ 1.90 (2.27%)
BOP 7.70 No Change ▼ 0.00 (0%)
BYCO 9.44 Increased By ▲ 0.07 (0.75%)
DGKC 111.51 Increased By ▲ 1.31 (1.19%)
EPCL 48.99 Decreased By ▼ -1.90 (-3.73%)
FCCL 22.85 Increased By ▲ 0.09 (0.4%)
FFBL 25.47 Decreased By ▼ -0.23 (-0.89%)
FFL 15.33 Increased By ▲ 0.03 (0.2%)
HASCOL 8.94 Decreased By ▼ -0.06 (-0.67%)
HUBC 78.43 Decreased By ▼ -0.57 (-0.72%)
HUMNL 6.13 Increased By ▲ 0.29 (4.97%)
JSCL 19.14 Increased By ▲ 0.44 (2.35%)
KAPCO 40.50 Increased By ▲ 1.11 (2.82%)
KEL 3.72 Increased By ▲ 0.04 (1.09%)
LOTCHEM 14.20 Decreased By ▼ -0.15 (-1.05%)
MLCF 42.75 Increased By ▲ 0.45 (1.06%)
PAEL 30.90 Decreased By ▼ -0.17 (-0.55%)
PIBTL 9.52 Increased By ▲ 0.07 (0.74%)
POWER 8.61 Increased By ▲ 0.17 (2.01%)
PPL 82.50 Decreased By ▼ -0.80 (-0.96%)
PRL 23.09 Increased By ▲ 0.32 (1.41%)
PTC 9.00 Decreased By ▼ -0.20 (-2.17%)
SILK 1.38 Decreased By ▼ -0.02 (-1.43%)
SNGP 38.90 Increased By ▲ 0.31 (0.8%)
TRG 165.00 Increased By ▲ 1.78 (1.09%)
UNITY 35.80 Increased By ▲ 0.87 (2.49%)
WTL 1.53 Increased By ▲ 0.08 (5.52%)
BR100 4,846 Increased By ▲ 46.43 (0.97%)
BR30 24,817 Increased By ▲ 123.55 (0.5%)
KSE100 45,175 Increased By ▲ 231.06 (0.51%)
KSE30 18,470 Increased By ▲ 86.89 (0.47%)

Coronavirus
VERY HIGH
Pakistan Deaths
18,915
11824hr
Pakistan Cases
858,026
378524hr
Sindh
291,668
Punjab
317,972
Balochistan
23,324
Islamabad
77,974
KPK
123,842

For the first time in history, the Cotton Crop Assessment Committee has set a lower yield target for Punjab’s crop than it claims to have achieved during the preceding year. At a time when global cotton prices are resurgent and the crop in short supply domestically, what explains the underwhelming expectations from cotton in the upcoming sowing season?

The easiest explanation, of course, is that the yield claimed to have been achieved in the outgoing year is inaccurate and may see a significant downward revision once the final figures are announced. That would mean that the government is finally ‘keeping it real’; as it is far easier to surpass mediocre targets than to aim high and fail miserably. But that raises very tragic implications for public policymaking, calling into question the very wisdom of target-setting, a subject best left for another day.

With acreage under the crop at an all-time low, traditional wisdom dictates that only the most efficient growers must stick to the crop, especially given the opportunity to shift to more profitable choices that are also less risky. So why does the government expect so little out of cotton farmers?

A survey of SBP’s State of the Economy reports over the past decade reveals that those responsible have implicated nearly every reason imaginable for falling crop productivity. It is as if that in coming years only those with gambling instincts would continue to bet long on the crop, hoping to hit big in the face of adversity.

That would matter little if the policymakers had the gumption to leave things to market forces, which - given the overwhelming threats to crop’s survival - may lead to its eventual extinction. Except that the ever-increasing reliance on the textile sector for precious export dollars mean that alarm is routinely raised over its dismal performance. Yet, it appears that the same tried-tested-and-failed solutions are dusted off and proposed each time, like a staircase that leads to nowhere.

Consider that the ministry of National Food Security & Research has once again floated the proposal of instituting a minimum support price and procurement by Trade Corporation of Pakistan to revive area under the crop. Never mind the epic failure government footprint has been in procurement of other crops such as wheat or sugarcane. Are the overlords at the ministry blissfully unaware of the shrinking fiscal space, rendering such schemes no better than fantasies?

If the crop failure of last 10 years have made one thing obvious, it is that this highly risk-prone cotton crop needs 21st century risk mitigation and management solutions, whether they come in the form of crop insurance, price stability through trading over commodity exchanges, contract farming, warehouse receipt financing, or adoption of technology. Which of those proposals may be best suited to unique local setting must be debated comprehensively by both the stakeholders and the public before their adoption.

But that would require stepping out of the comfort zone afforded by political grandstanding. And if the events over past week are anything to go by, that’s one thing the ruling party seems resolutely incapable of.