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Business & Finance

Covid-19 Vaccines to develop into a Multibillion-Dollar market in 2021: Fitch

  • “Coupled with the unparalleled demand, these products will help to develop Covid-19 vaccines into a multibillion-dollar commercial opportunity,” it stated.
07 Jan 2021

As the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic has accelerated rapid changes in healthcare system including the need for a safe and effective vaccine to help countries return to pre-Covid-19 levels of business and social activity.

Fitch Solutions in its latest report titled The Year Ahead: Global Industries Outlook 2021, expects that the coronavirus vaccines providing higher efficacy results would become a major commercial market in the ongoing year.

Throughout November 2020, three vaccine developers, Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna and AstraZeneca reported positive efficacy results from Phase III clinical trials. In early December 2020, the first Covid-19 vaccine developed by Pfizer and its commercial partner BioNTech, was approved by the UK’s medicine regulator.

Over 2021, Fitch Solutions expect a large number of further approvals, for both Pfizer’s vaccine and others utilising the same or different technologies. “Coupled with the unparalleled demand, these products will help to develop Covid-19 vaccines into a multibillion-dollar commercial opportunity,” it stated.

The report forecasted that the Covid-19 vaccine market to initially develop along the lines of agreements in place between governments and vaccine manufacturers, which stipulate vaccine supply for a pre-agreed price per dose.

“We have recently highlighted the now nearly 100 deals in which price per dose has varied considerably as per the chart above. Given that governments are viewing vaccines as the catalyst for economic recovery, companies with the most effective vaccines will be able to command relatively high prices for Covid-19 vaccine products,” the report said.

It highlighted that some companies have opted for a more conservative approach to pricing to ensure broad access. For the most part though pricing will reflect efficacy, safety, dosing, and transit conditions which will all play a role in demand for a given product.

“Overall, we expect, distribution to continue across three-speeds largely dependent on level of economic development. Over the longer term, prices will taper as more products enter the market,” it said.