SINGAPORE: Spot gold could end its current rally around $1,800 per ounce and fall towards $1,527 over the next three months.
A surge to $1,850 will confirm a double-bottom, with a target at $2,100.
The rally started from the May 16 low of $1,527 which coincided with a strong support provided by the 23.6 percent Fibonacci retracement on the rise from the 1999 low of $251.70 to the record high of $1,920.30.
The rise has been driven by five waves labelled I, II, III, IV, V, and the completion of this five-wave cycle at $1,920.30 has resulted in a correction.
The correction will develop three big waves labelled A, B, C and is approaching the end of the wave B phase.
The wave B seems to have adopted a flat pattern, which means its three smaller waves, the wave a, b and c have roughly the same length, indicating the wave c is more or less over.
A bigger downward wave C will soon take over and drive the price towards $1,527.
The depth of the correction has raised too much doubt about its completion. It may be too early to cheer the dawn of gold's journey towards $2,000-$3,000 range.
If the correction is against the 12 years bull cycle starting from 1999, obviously, it is too shallow, as it is supposed to at least reach the 38.2 percent retracement at $1,283.
If the correction is against the medium-term uptrend from the Oct. 24, 2008 low of $680.80, it's sideways mode signals it will stretch a longer time.
Gold has taken 748 days to rise from $680.80 to $1,920.30, while the correction from $1,920.30 to $1,527 has only lasted 182 days.
A 50 percent of the 748 days would mean the correction may go on about 374 days, to end in middle Feb. of 2014.
In addition, the current pattern may repeat the consolidation in a range of $410.40-$456.75 from December 2, 2004 to July 15, 2005.
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