Can Pakistan peak at 1000-1200 deaths?

Following up on Covid-19 trends and where is Pakistan heading, here is an attempt to see how long could it be before the curve starts to bend or flatten. Rest assured the government will have multiple high-level simulation models to run and project the trajectory. This is a crude attempt, benchmarking the rest of the world and see how long has it usually taken for most countries to start flattening or bending the curve.

And before everyone and their aunt tell you about the daily rise in the number of positive cases, and how the number has gone up exponentially, this piece of analysis is related to Covid-deaths, and not the number of positive cases. For good reason too. There is ample evidence globally available that number of confirmed cases will largely remain a fraction of tests conducted. The fear of people losing the lives is what the virus is all about - and is what has brought the world to its knees. It then makes all the sense to focus more on the mortality trends.

Tuesday marked end of day 29 since five daily deaths were first reported. Pakistan is very comfortably placed with the countries averaging less than 30 daily deaths on day 30. Only three of the 25 countries have performed better than Pakistan’s average of 28 daily deaths on a 7-day rolling average. The map just like the one showing doubling of deaths, places Pakistan in the green zone (see: Does Pakistan’s Covid mortality offer hope?).

Has the curve come to its peak? No. Does it appear near one? If global trends are a guide, yes. And that is good news. Most mortality curves have flattened or bent around day 35-50. Even if Pakistan’s curve peaks near the higher end of the global range of day 50 - Pakistan’s peak should be 20 days away. In best case, it could come in 10 days, as the doubling of cases has been rather slow – and most countries have only witnessed the doubling of cases slowed from 500 to 1000 and beyond.

If Pakistan is fortunate enough to cap the peak at 1000-1200 deaths in the next 20 days, and then flatten or preferably bend the curve – the healthcare system looks in decent enough shape to withstand that sort of pressure. Pakistan has done reasonably well till this stage, and it would not hurt to keep doing whatever it has for another two weeks. If the storm is weathered without overwhelming the healthcare system, it will be a job well done. All the point scoring and lockdown debates can be put to hold till then.