A year from now, Americans would have elected their next president. It would be known then whether the Trump presidency was a historical aberration. While the economy is humming a nice tune in the aggregate, The Donald has started his final year in office in some unfavorable circumstances. His political base, the roughly 40 percent of electorate, is largely intact, but some cracks are emerging in the wall.
The US President is facing a serious threat of “impeachment” in a Democratic-controlled Congress. He is being accused of blackmailing a vulnerably foreign ally (Ukraine, in this case) into investigating a domestic political opponent (Joe Biden). The Democrats have come together on this issue and soon Mr. Trump would have to go through some contentious impeachment trials at the hands of his bitter rivals.
While the congressional testimonies from top diplomats suggest a serious abuse of power in the Ukraine Affair, there will not be a straight line from “impeachment” to “removal” from office. Republicans are sticking with Trump, for now, albeit a few of the ruling party’s senators have made their distaste known for the un-presidential behavior. There is little likelihood that the Republican-controlled Senate, where a two-thirds majority is required to impeach a president, would side with the Democrats in the House.
Moreover, Democrats would also tread with caution, given that public polls concerning impeachment are split down the middle. It isn’t like 60 or 70 percent of the American public supports impeachment and removal from office. While Trump’s approval ratings are averaging net-unfavorable in double digits, the public mood can shift if Trump is able to portray himself as a victim during the impeachment trials.
The last thing the Democrats need is turning off the moderate voters. Perhaps that is why the Democrats are planning to get done with the impeachment trials before Christmas, so that the base and the independents public could quickly absorb the aftermath, and still leave the party with enough time to seize or change the narrative around an unhinged president’s ability to lead America beyond 2020.
While the looming impeachment is slowly sullying the president’s image, there is some bad news for Trump from the South. Last week, Democratic candidates made some serious gains in the elections for governorships in Trump states like Kentucky, Mississippi, and Virginia. A mix of local politics and national issues framed around Trumpian politics helped the Democrats turn out the base and convince moderates.
Meanwhile, the Democrats still haven’t settled on the candidate they need to put up against Trump in 2020. VP Biden has been the front-runner in national polls; but he isn’t doing well in the early primary states of Iowa and New Hampshire, where Elizabeth Warren is in a firm lead. Perhaps the party needs to wait until the Super Tuesday in early March to find out their most likely candidate to take on Trump.
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