Projections of cotton crop are seen with a great deal of interest due to their major impact on the economy of the country. Although, it is too early to know the exact size of the crop for the current season (2015-16), its prospects do not appear to be encouraging. According to a report in this newspaper on 2nd November, 2015, the country is likely to face a massive shortfall in its cotton production target of 15.49 million bales during FY16 due to damage to the crop caused by rains, floods and Cotton Leaf Curl Virus (CLCV). The Cotton Crop Assessment Committee (CCAC) has already revised the estimates downwards to 13.38 million bales and the next meeting of the committee likely to be held next week is set to lower the estimate further to 11.7 million bales. Province-wise, Punjab is projected to produce 10.5 million bales from 6 million acres. Monsoon rains, floods and standing water affected cotton crop on about 0.9 million acres and the latest projection is likely to be revised to 8.1 million bales in the coming ACAC meeting. Sindh was projected to produce 4.4 million bales from 1.6 million acres. After monsoon rains, floods and the damage by CLCV, the estimates are likely to be revised downwards from the projected level of 4.4 million bales to only 3.0 million bales. Balochistan is projected to produce 0.59 million bales from 0.1 million acres and KP 0.0015 million bales from 0.001 million acres, with no significant changes.
The downward revision in estimates of cotton crop for the 2015-16 season are, of course, distressing and are a clear indicator of a number of inefficiencies in the system. It may be mentioned that the size of cotton crop had remained satisfactory over the last few years, rising from 11.5 million bales in 2010-11 to 14.0 million bales in 2014-15 due to a number of factors including training of small farmers, extension services of PCCC, better returns to the farmers and some control over CLCV and mealy bug. According to Dr Khalid Abdullah, the Cotton Commissioner, severe CLCV attacks in Sindh and Punjab have been reported, sowing target has been missed and the crop damaged due to monsoon and standing water in the crop. The unavailability of certified seeds and, use of pesticide not consistent with the requirement of the crop has also negatively impacted the output. From the list of factors negatively impacting the cotton crop, it could easily be discerned that while factors like monsoon rains and standing water in the crops were beyond the control of authorities, the reappearance of pests, easy availability of certified seeds, etc, were something which could have been easily managed by the government. The timely advice to the farmers could also have helped in raising the level of output. The experience of FY16, therefore, underlines the need for the authorities to be very alert and watchful for maximising the crop output in future. To repent after the damage has been done serves no purpose. It may be added that the importance of cotton crop can hardly be over-emphasised in our context. Cotton has a share of 1.4 percent in GDP and contributes 6.7 percent to agriculture value-addition besides being an essential source of raw material to the textile industry. More importantly, cotton and its products account for nearly 60 percent of country's exports and are a source of employment for a large part of the country's population. For average farmers, it is a cash crop which serves to meet their liquidity requirement and enables the industrial sector of the economy to survive and expand its base. The government has given the relief package to the farming community but it was announced when the damage to the cotton crop had already been done. All in all, the agriculture sector of the country needs to be encouraged through a variety of measures and incentives, with a proper emphasis on major cash and non-cash crops. The sooner it is done, the better.
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