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The palm oil market is seeing significant shifts. For Pakistan, the focus remains on import costs and domestic consumption. Recent data from the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics shows a sharp rise in palm oil import prices. Unit prices climbed to nearly $1,000 per ton in November 2024 from below $900 earlier in the year. Despite higher costs, imported quantities remain close to historical levels. Smuggling-related disruptions seem minimal. Retail cooking oil prices in Pakistan also appear to have bottomed out, at least for now.

Globally, Malaysia’s palm oil stockpiles fell for the second consecutive month in November. Stocks declined by 2.6 percent to 1.84 million metric tons. Crude palm oil production dropped 9.8 percent to 1.62 million tons, the lowest November level since 2020. Adverse weather disrupted harvesting and transport. Exports fell 14.7 percent to 1.49 million tons due to weak demand and global uncertainties.

Benchmark futures have surged to their highest levels in about 2.5 years. Tightening supply and production shortfalls in key exporting nations are driving prices higher. For Pakistan, decisions by Indonesian and Malaysian authorities on export quotas and restrictions will be critical. These will shape price trends for the first quarter of 2025. Indonesia’s recent increase in export levies to ensure domestic supply has added to global price volatility. Still, Pakistan’s market remains relatively stable.

The horrors of three years ago, when supply chains were severely disrupted, seem distant. All appears under control as long as the currency continues to behave as it has over the past year. Policymakers in importing nations like Pakistan must stay vigilant. Climate risks and global price fluctuations remain key concerns. December’s figures and export policy decisions from key producers will likely determine the market’s direction in the months ahead.

Comments

200 characters
KU Dec 27, 2024 09:56am
Where is the paragraph 'agriculture is the backbone of country n if or would or could of growing oil seeds crops, we would be self-sufficient'? It's a sorry tale for an already over populated country.
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AZ Dec 27, 2024 11:30am
Barter system with indonesia and Malaysia should be explored.
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Khan Dec 28, 2024 05:09pm
@AZ, Can the surge in prices be tackled by doing this?
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Az_Iz Dec 31, 2024 09:36pm
Need to focus on healthy eating habits. Lower consumption of cooking oil is bad for health and your pockets.
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Az_Iz Dec 31, 2024 09:37pm
Food habits need to change. Preparing dishes soaking in inch deep oil is bad for health and your pockets.
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