LONDON: The global platinum market will be in a structural deficit for a third consecutive year in 2025 as mine supply remains constrained despite rising recycling and a 1% decline in demand, the World Platinum Investment Council said on Tuesday.
The WPIC, whose members are major Western platinum producers, expects the global market to show a shortfall of 539,000 troy ounces of platinum next year compared with a revised estimated deficit of 682,000 ounces this year.
“The market is facing the third year of pretty material deficit in 2025, with automotive demand expected to grow to an eight-year high and jewellery demand to rise for the second year in a row after bottoming out,” said Edward Sterck, head of research at the WPIC.
This year’s forecast was reduced from the deficit of 1.0 million ounces predicted by the WPIC in September, as a more stable power supply in South Africa helped the country’s mines to process more concentrates held as a work-in-progress inventory.
Next year, the WPIC expects mine supply to fall 2% due to lower South African production and to be fully offset by a 12% recovery in recycled supply.
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Meanwhile, demand from the auto sector, which uses platinum in catalytic converters to reduce harmful emissions from vehicle exhaust systems, is projected to fall by 2% this year to 3.2 million ounces due to economic uncertainty and high interest rates.
Next year, the WPIC sees the auto demand recovering by 2% to its highest level since 2017 due to growth in sales of hybrid vehicles, stricter emissions legislation, and platinum-for-palladium substitution, the WPIC, which uses data from consultancy Metals Focus, added.
To cover the deficit, above-ground stocks will fall by 15% to 3.0 million ounces, equal to just over four months of global demand.
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