MUMBAI: The Indian rupee is expected to be under pressure at open on Monday, possibly dipping to a new low, on concerns that rising Middle East tensions could push oil prices higher and sour risk appetite.
Non-deliverable forwards indicate the rupee will open at around 83.44-83.48 to the US dollar compared with 83.4150 in the previous session.
The rupee’s lifetime low is 83.4550, hit on April 4. Brent crude climbed above $92 for the first time in nearly six months on Friday.
It has since pulled back to $90.30.
Oil prices have been rising steadily in recent weeks and the near-term questions come down to how much further could it increase and how quickly, HSBC said in a note.
Fears of a wider conflict grew following Iran’s first direct attack on Israel.
Asian markets began the week on a nervous note with equities and currencies lower.
Indian rupee hopes to climb past resistance on dollar weakness after Powell comments
“What happens from here will depend on what Israel does. Iran has indicated that it does not plan any more action,” an fx trader at a Mumbai-based bank said.
“For now, you have to assume that Israel will not retaliate and push the stakes higher, which would mean that the impact on the rupee from what has happened over the weekend will not be much.”
Two senior Israeli ministers signalled on Sunday that retaliation was not imminent and that Israel would not act alone. Safe haven flows pushed up the dollar index and boosted US Treasuries on Friday.
The dollar index climbed past 106 for the first time since November.
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