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KARACHI: Pakistan OMC’s recorded sales of 1.4 million tons up 9.0 percent on month-on-month basis while Ex-Furnace Oil (FO) sales up 7.0 percent MoM in November 2023.

The MoM jump in sales is due to lower petrol and diesel prices and low base of FO sales in last month, experts said.

Average petrol price of November 2023 came down to Rs 282 per litre compared to Rs 303 per litre in October 2023. Similarly average Diesel prices came down to Rs 300 per litre in November 2023 from Rs 311 per litre in October 2023.

FO sales for November 2023 rose 54 percent MoM to 82,000 tons. This rise is due to the shortage of RLNG/Gas and reduced hydel power generation in winter months, leading in a switch to FO based power generation, we believe.

Petrol price likely to remain unchanged

On YoY basis, in November 2023 total OMC’s sales down 11 percent YoY and Ex-FO sales down 8.0 percent YoY. The YoY fall in sales is due to higher fuel prices and economic slowdown.

This takes five months of FY24 total sales to 6.5 million tons, down 16 percent YoY while Ex-FO sales down by 6.0 percent YoY as compared to 7.7 million tons in the five months in FY23.

To highlight, average petrol prices in the five months of FY24 clocked in at Rs 289 per litre up 25 percent YoY and average diesel prices up 21 percent YoY to Rs 295 per litre in the five months of FY24.

Among the listed entities, Attock Petroleum (APL) sales clocked in at 121,000 tons, a 9.0 percent decline YoY and a 2.0 percent decline MoM in November 2023. FO sales fell by 43 percent YoY which mainly contributed to fall of APL sales.

Pakistan State Oil (PSO) saw a fall of 12 percent YoY and a 14 percent MoM rise to 715,000 tons in November 2023. FO saw a 43 percent YoY fall and 337 percent MoM rise, contributing greatly to the overall PSO sales.

Shell Pakistan (SHEL) saw a 19 percent fall YoY and a 3.0 percent MoM rise to 93,000 tons. HSD sale was up 7.0 percent MoM and MS sales up 1.0 percent MoM in November 2023.

“For FY24, we anticipate a potential recovery in Ex-FO OMC sales, estimated to increase by up to 5 percent,” Myesha Sohail at Topline Securities said.

“This is primarily attributed to a pickup in economic activity, where interest rates are expected to decline in the latter half of FY24, coupled with a favorable agricultural crop this year.”

Copyright Business Recorder, 2023

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