AIRLINK 69.92 Increased By ▲ 4.72 (7.24%)
BOP 5.46 Decreased By ▼ -0.11 (-1.97%)
CNERGY 4.50 Decreased By ▼ -0.06 (-1.32%)
DFML 25.71 Increased By ▲ 1.19 (4.85%)
DGKC 69.85 Decreased By ▼ -0.11 (-0.16%)
FCCL 20.02 Decreased By ▼ -0.28 (-1.38%)
FFBL 30.69 Increased By ▲ 1.58 (5.43%)
FFL 9.75 Decreased By ▼ -0.08 (-0.81%)
GGL 10.12 Increased By ▲ 0.11 (1.1%)
HBL 114.90 Increased By ▲ 0.65 (0.57%)
HUBC 132.10 Increased By ▲ 3.00 (2.32%)
HUMNL 6.73 Increased By ▲ 0.02 (0.3%)
KEL 4.44 No Change ▼ 0.00 (0%)
KOSM 4.93 Increased By ▲ 0.04 (0.82%)
MLCF 36.45 Decreased By ▼ -0.55 (-1.49%)
OGDC 133.90 Increased By ▲ 1.60 (1.21%)
PAEL 22.50 Decreased By ▼ -0.04 (-0.18%)
PIAA 25.39 Decreased By ▼ -0.50 (-1.93%)
PIBTL 6.61 Increased By ▲ 0.01 (0.15%)
PPL 113.20 Increased By ▲ 0.35 (0.31%)
PRL 30.12 Increased By ▲ 0.71 (2.41%)
PTC 14.70 Decreased By ▼ -0.54 (-3.54%)
SEARL 57.55 Increased By ▲ 0.52 (0.91%)
SNGP 66.60 Increased By ▲ 0.15 (0.23%)
SSGC 10.99 Increased By ▲ 0.01 (0.09%)
TELE 8.77 Decreased By ▼ -0.03 (-0.34%)
TPLP 11.51 Decreased By ▼ -0.19 (-1.62%)
TRG 68.61 Decreased By ▼ -0.01 (-0.01%)
UNITY 23.47 Increased By ▲ 0.07 (0.3%)
WTL 1.34 Decreased By ▼ -0.04 (-2.9%)
BR100 7,399 Increased By 104.2 (1.43%)
BR30 24,136 Increased By 282 (1.18%)
KSE100 70,910 Increased By 619.8 (0.88%)
KSE30 23,377 Increased By 205.6 (0.89%)

SYDNEY: The Australian and New Zealand dollars edged higher on Monday as global markets stabilised somewhat in the face of geopolitical risk, though there are plenty of domestic hurdles ahead this week from economic data and central bank events.

The Aussie firmed 0.2% to $0.6309, but was still uncomfortably close its recent 11-month low of $0.6286. A break of that chart support could unleash a retreat toward the 2022 trough of $0.6170.

The kiwi dollar added 0.3% to $0.5904, moving away from last week’s low of $0.5885.

It faces resistance around $0.5930, with major support at $0.5860.

New Zealand inflation figures due on Tuesday could make or break the case for another hike in interest rates.

Consumer prices are forecast to have risen a steep 2.0% in the third quarter, which would see annual inflation slow just a tick to 5.9%.

Domestic, or non-tradable, inflation is seen easing to around 6.2% and will be key for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ).

“A print below 6.2% will likely weaken the view that interest rates may need to rise again,” said Jarrod Kerr, chief economist at Kiwibank.

“Equally, a higher outcome extends the RBNZ’s already long road back to 2% and strengthens the risk of a hike.”

“A prolonged on-hold stance would seem the appropriate approach, going forward.” Markets imply about a 30% chance of a rise in the 5.5% cash rate in November, with the RBNZ then not meeting until late February.

Australia, NZ dollars lower

Across the Tasman, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will release minutes of its October meeting on Tuesday, providing more detail on why it held rates steady at 4.1% for a fourth straight month.

They should also show whether the board discussed accelerating the sale of its government bond holdings as a form of quantitative tightening, though officials have since said they have no plans at the moment to do so.

RBA Governor Michele Bullock speaks on Wednesday, ahead of jobs data for September due on Thursday.

Analysts are generally expecting a rise of about 20,000 jobs with the unemployment rate holding at 3.7%.

“We expect the September data to show a 30,000 pace of employment gains that is about enough to absorb rapidly increasing labour supply,” said analysts at NAB.

They believe Australia’s third-quarter inflation figures due on Oct. 25 will show a high enough reading for core inflation to prompt the RBA to hike at its next board meeting on Nov. 7.

Markets are not so sure and imply only around a 23% chance of a quarter-point rate increase to 4.35%.

Comments

Comments are closed.