IMF’s Fiscal Monitor report: Macroeconomic indicators show deterioration

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s key macroeconomic indicators as projected in the International Monetary Fund’s Fiscal Monitor (FM) report released on 11 October 2023, show deterioration compared to the projections in the Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) documents uploaded two and a half months ago in July 2023.

The SBA projected government expenditure at 19.8 percent of GDP for 2023-24 against 18.9 percent in 2022-23, however the FM showed an increase of 0.6 percent in government expenditure - from 19.5 percent of GDP in 2023 to 20.1 percent in 2024.

Consumer prices (end of period) were estimated at 16.2 for 2024 against 34 percent in 2023, however, the FM has projected consumer prices for the end of period of 2024 at 17.5 percent against 29.4 percent in 2023.

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SBA documents projected budget balance at -7.5 percent for 2023-24 against -7.6 percent in 2022-23, and the FM has projected government overall balance at -7.6 percent for 2024 against -8.1 percent in 2023.

General government debt was projected at 70.9 percent of GDP for 2023-24 against 77.4 percent in 2022-23 in the SBA documents however, the FM projected it at 72.2 percent for 2024 against 76.6 percent in 2023.

The Fund has projected government primary balance at 0.4 percent for 2024 which is the same in both reports. However, the World Bank projected primary balance for Pakistan at negative 0.4 percent (-0.4) for the current fiscal year 2023-24, as opposed to 0.4 percent surplus (0.4) by the IMF, and claiming last week that its data is updated relative to the Fund.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2023