Rupee closes with marginal loss against US dollar

Witnessing its usual appreciation in the opening hours of trading, Pakistan’s rupee ended the day with a marginal decrease against the US dollar in the inter-bank market, falling 0.01% on Thursday.

As per the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), the rupee closed at 225.43 after a fall of Re0.03 against the greenback. The rupee has depreciated by 21.73% against the US dollar during the ongoing calendar year.

The rupee has gained in the first half this week, but ended with losses by the end of the session.

On Wednesday, the rupee depreciated against the US dollar, to settle at 225.40 after a decline of Re0.28 or 0.12% in the inter-bank market.

In a key development, the SBP in its ‘Annual Report on The State of Pakistan’s Economy’ released on Wednesday stated that it expects Pakistan’s GDP growth to moderate considerably during FY23.

According to its flagship report on the country’s economic health, the central bank projected real GDP growth below the previously-announced range of 3–4% for FY23, after taking into account the destruction caused by floods and the policy focus on stabilisation.

Moreover, in a report published on Thursday, brokerage house Arif Habib Limited (AHL) said it does not see SBP measures taken to stabilise the currency as sustainable and expects the central bank to gradually loosen administrative measures.

“We don’t expect artificial currency control measures with multiple exchange rates to be sustainable and expect SBP to gradually relax administrative measures as the next IMF tranche and linked bilateral and multilateral inflows start to materialize (likely in 1Q2023),” AHL stated.

“In this backdrop, we expect the official rate to converge towards the unofficial rate with June/Dec 2023 PKR/USD closing rates of 250/263, respectively.”

Globally, China’s yuan edged up against the dollar on Thursday while sentiment continued to be hammered by the spread of COVID-19 across the country and worries over the virus’ impact on economic activity in the near term.

Asian currencies were trading higher, while the dollar index declined to 103.92 on positive risk sentiment. The overnight rally on US equities spread to Asia. US consumer confidence rose to an eight-month high in December, lifting appetite for risk assets.

Oil prices, a key indicator of currency parity, climbed for a fourth straight day on Thursday with US crude, heating oil and jet fuel stocks growing tighter just as a wintry blast hits the United States.

Inter-bank market rates for dollar on Thursday

BID Rs 225.45

OFFER Rs 226.45

Open-market movement

In the open market, the PKR remained unchanged for both buying and selling against USD, closing at 232.25 and 234.50, respectively.

Against Euro, the PKR lost 3 rupees for both buying and selling, closing at 260 and 262 respectively.

Against UAE Dirham, the PKR lost 50 paisas for buying and 40 paisas for selling, closing at 68.80 and 69.30, respectively.

Against Saudi Riyal, the PKR remained unchanged for both buying and selling, closing at 65.20 and 65.70, respectively.

Open-market rates for dollar on Thursday

BID Rs 232.25

OFFER Rs 234.50