Oil sales up 9% in October amid improved mobility post-floods

Oil sales in Pakistan in October 2022 increased by 9% on a month-on-month (MoM) basis to 1.66 million tons.

Major reasons behind the increase in oil sales include improved mobility of vehicles post floods, start of Rabi sowing season (crops sown in autumn or early winter) and a decline in prices compared to the previous month, Nasheed Malik at Topline Securities said in a report on Wednesday.

However, oil sales recorded a 16% YoY decline in October 2022 due to fall in all major petroleum products.

The sales of high-speed diesel (HSD) and motor gasoline (MOGAS) increased by 37% and 8%, respectively, on a monthly basis while sales of furnace oil (FO) declined by 33%.

As compared to last year, MOGAS sales declined by 11% YoY, while HSD sales recorded a drop of 15% YoY, and FO sales were down 37% YoY.

The YoY drop in oil sales is primarily due to a rise in fuel prices, lower car sales, reduced overall economic activity and lower FO-based power generation, said Malik.

Among the listed entities, Pakistan State Oil (PSO) sales increased 6% MoM but fell 18% YoY to 851,000 tons.

PSO market share declined to 51% in October 2022 compared to 52% share at the same time last year.

Sept oil sales dive 22pc to 1.53m tons YoY

Attock Petroleum (APL) sales declined by 2% MoM and 16% YoY. Shell Pakistan sales increased by 13% MoM and declined by 19% YoY.

During 4MFY23, oil sales decreased by 22% YoY to 6.15 million tons due to an economic slowdown, with a decline visible in all major petroleum products, said the report. The harsher monsoon season and consequent floods have also had a major impact on sales, it added.

When it comes to products, FO and HSD witnessed the biggest drops, with a decline of 26% YoY, while MOGAS sales declined by 18% YoY.

“We expect FY23 oil sales to drop by ~20%-25% YoY, mainly due to reduced economic activity, decline in auto sales, and higher petroleum prices,” Topline said.