ISTANBUL: Turkey’s current account is expected to record a deficit of $3.60 billion in July and end the year with a deficit of more than $46 billion, a Reuters poll showed on Wednesday, as soaring energy prices widen the shortfall.
The trade deficit, a major component of the current account balance, soared 147% in July to $10.69 billion, mainly due to Turkey’s hefty energy import bill.
In a Reuters poll, the median estimate of nine economists for the current account deficit in July was $3.60 billion, with forecasts ranging from $2.50 billion to $4.40 billion.
The deficit was seen at $46.19 billion for 2022 as a whole, according to the median estimate of ten economists, with the range of forecasts between $38 billion and $54 billion.
Economists have been revising up their forecasts for the 2022 deficit due to surging energy prices. The median forecast was up sharply from a month earlier, when it stood at $40.15 billion.
Ankara also sees the deficit at $47.3 billion this year, according to forecasts published on Sunday.
Under President Tayyip Erdogan’s economic plan, which prioritizes growth, exports and employment, with low interest rates, the central bank has cut its policy rate by 500 basis points in 2021, triggering a currency crisis that saw the lira lose 44% against the dollar that year.
It cut the one-week repo rate again last month to 13% despite the lira having shed more than 27% so far this year.
The government says Turkey’s chronic current account deficit, which stood at $14.9 billion last year, will turn to a surplus under the plan but the new forecasts, which covers 2025, did not see that happening.
Turkey’s central bank is scheduled to announce the July current account data at 0700 GMT on Sept. 12.
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