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ISLAMABAD: The National Accounts Committee (NAC) has approved 5.97 percent estimated provisional Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate for the ongoing fiscal year 2021-22 as compared to 5.74 percent for the last financial year 2020-21.

The 105th meeting of the NAC to review the final, revised and provisional estimates of GDP for the years 2019-20, 2020-21 and 2021-22 respectively was held on Wednesday in the Auditorium of the Ministry of Planning, Development and Special Initiatives (MoPD&SI), P-Block, Islamabad. The secretary, MoPD&SI chaired the meeting.

The provisional GDP estimates for the year 2020-21 and revised GDP estimates for the year 2019-20 presented in the 104th meeting of the NAC held in January 2022 have been updated on the basis of the latest available data.

According to the data shared by the Ministry of Planning and Development, the growth rate of agricultural, industrial and services sectors is estimated at 4.40per cent, 7.19 per cent and 6.19 per cent respectively for the current fiscal year 2021-22 as compared 3.48 per cent, 7.81 per cent and 6 per cent for the last fiscal year 2020-21.

The GDP of the country at current market prices has reached to Rs66.949 trillion in 2021-22 which has resulted in an increase in the per capita income from Rs268,223 in 2020-21 to Rs314,353 in 2021-22. The per capita income in US$ has increased from 1,676 in 2020-21 to 1,798 in 2021-22. Further, the volume of the economy in US$ in 2021-22 stands at $383 billion.

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The growth of important crops during this year is 7.24 per cent as compared to 5.83 per cent for the previous fiscal year. The growth in production of important crops namely cotton, rice, sugarcane and maize are estimated at 17.9 per cent, 10.7 per cent, 9.4 per cent, and 19.0 per cent respectively.

The cotton crop increased from 7.1m bales reported last year to 8.3m bales; rice production increased from 8.4m tons to 9.3m tons; sugarcane production increased from 81.0m tons to 88.7m tons; maize production increased from 8.4m tons to 10.6m tons respectively, while wheat production decreased from 27.5m tons to 26.4m tons. Other crops showed growth of 5.44 per cent mainly because of an increase in the production of pulses, vegetables, fodder, oilseeds and fruits. The livestock sector is showing a growth of 3.26 per cent. The growth of forestry is 3.13 per cent and fishing is at 0.35 per cent.

The overall industrial sector shows an increase of 7.19 per cent from 7.81 per cent. The mining and quarrying sector has decreased by 4.47 per cent due to a decline in the production of other minerals as well as a decline in the exploration cost.

The Large Scale Manufacturing industry is driven primarily by QIM data (from July 2021 to March 2022) which shows an increase of 10.4 per cent. Major contributors to this growth are food (11.67 per cent), tobacco (16.7 per cent), textile (3.19 per cent), wearing apparel (33.95 per cent), wood products (157.5 per cent), chemicals (7.79 per cent), iron and steel products (16.55 per cent), automobiles (54.10 per cent), furniture (301.83 per cent) and other manufacturing (37.83 per cent). The electricity, gas and water industry shows a growth of 7.86 per cent mainly due to an increase in subsidies in 2021-22.

The value-added in the construction industry, mainly driven by construction-related expenditures by industries, has registered a modest growth of 3.14 per cent mainly due to an increase in general government spending.

The services sector shows a growth of 6.19 per cent. Wholesale and retail trade industry growth is 10.04 per cent for the current fiscal year as compared to 10.58 per cent for the last financial year 2020-21. It is dependent on the output of agriculture, manufacturing and imports. The growth in trade value-added relating to agriculture, manufacturing and imports stands at 3.99 per cent, 9.82 per cent, and 19.93 per cent, respectively.

The transportation and storage industry has increased by 5.42 per cent from 5.06 per cent due to an increase in gross value addition of railways (41.85 per cent), air transport (26.56 per cent), road transport (4.99 per cent), and storage.

The growth rate of accommodation and food services activities is 4.07 per cent as compared to 4.1 per cent for the previous year.

Similarly, information and communication increased by 11.9 per cent due to improvement in telecommunication, computer programming, consultancy and related activities as compared to 7.5 per cent.

The finance and insurance industry shows an overall growth 4.93 per cent as compared to 5.94 per cent for last fiscal year 202-21. Real estate activities grew by 3.7 per cent to3.64 per cent while public administration and social security (general government) activities posted negative growth of 1.23 per cent due to high deflator. Education has witnessed a growth of 8.65 per cent due to public sector expenditure as compared to 3.25 per cent of the previous year. Human health and social work activities also increased by 2.25 per cent due to general government expenditures. The provisional growth in other private services is 3.76 per cent.

The final growth rate of GDP for the year 2019-20 has been estimated at -0.94 per cent which was -1.0 per cent in the revised estimates. The revised growth rate of GDP for the year 2020-21 is 5.74per cent which was provisionally estimated at 5.57 percent.

The crops sub-sector has improved from 5.92 per cent to 5.96 per cent. The other crops have improved from provisional growth of 8.08 per cent to 8.27 per cent in revised estimates. The growth of the industrial sector in the revised estimates is 7.81 per cent which was 7.79 per cent in the provisional estimates while growth of the services sector has improved from 5.7 per cent to 6.0 per cent.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2022

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