US natural gas futures jumped about 4% on Tuesday, erasing most of Monday's 5% drop, as soaring global gas prices keep demand for US liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports near record highs.
Gas prices in Europe soared about 6% on Tuesday as colder weather increased demand and the market remained nervous about winter supplies from Russia.
In recent months, global gas prices hit record highs as utilities around the world scrambled for LNG cargoes to replenish extremely low stockpiles in Europe and meet insatiable demand in Asia, where energy shortfalls have caused power blackouts in China.
Following those global gas prices, US futures jumped to a 12-year high in early October, but have since pulled back because the United States has plenty of gas in storage and ample production for the winter. Overseas prices continue to trade about six times higher than US futures.
Analysts have said European inventories were about 17% below normal for this time of year, compared with just 2% below normal in the United States.
US front-month gas futures were up 20.3 cents, or 4.2%, to $4.992 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 7:54 a.m. EST (1254 GMT). On Monday, the contract settled at its lowest since Sept. 7.
In the spot market, gas prices for Tuesday in New York and New England jumped to their highest since the February freeze as temperatures in the US Northeast dropped and homes and businesses cranked up their heaters. The February freeze cut US gas production and left millions of consumers without power and heat for days in Texas and other Central US states.
High temperatures in Boston, the biggest city in New England, were only expected to reach about 43 degrees Fahrenheit (6 Celsius) on Tuesday and Wednesday, according to meteorologists at AccuWeather. That compares with a normal high of 49 degrees at this time of year.
Data provider Refinitiv said output in the US Lower 48 states averaged 96.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in November, up from 94.1 bcfd in October and a monthly record of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019.
Refinitiv projected average US gas demand, including exports, would rise from 111.2 bcfd this week to 112.6 bcfd next week as the weather turns seasonally colder and homes and businesses crank up their heaters. The forecast for next week, however, was lower than Refinitiv's forecast on Monday.
The amount of gas flowing to US LNG export plants has averaged 11.2 bcfd so far in November, up from 10.5 bcfd in October as the sixth train at Cheniere Energy Inc's Sabine Pass plant in Louisiana started producing LNG in test mode. That compares with a monthly record of 11.5 bcfd in April.
With gas prices around $29 per mmBtu in Europe and $34 in Asia, compared with about $5 in the United States, traders said buyers around the world will keep purchasing all the LNG the United States can produce.