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Front quarter set for worst day in a year on wetter outlook

  • Nordic front-year lost 0.55 euro or 2%, to 26.95 euros/MWh, also on-track for its biggest fall since Jan. 15
  • Weather forecasts have changed during the weekend - now less cold, more precipitation and stronger winds are forecast.
Published February 15, 2021

Nordic forward power prices fell on Monday, with the front quarter contract set to register its biggest percentage decline in about a year, as forecasts indicated wetter weather in the hydropower-dependent region.

Nordic front-quarter baseload power contract fell 3.95 euros or 12.3%, to 28.20 euros per megawatt hour (MWh) at 1231 GMT, set to post its worst day since mid-March 2020.

Nordic front-year lost 0.55 euro or 2%, to 26.95 euros/MWh, also on-track for its biggest fall since Jan. 15

"Weather forecasts have changed during the weekend - now less cold, more precipitation and stronger winds are forecast," said Arne Bergvik, chief analyst at Jämtkraft.

As many as 12 days of precipitation are expected in the Nordic region in the coming two weeks, Refinitiv data showed.

"However, the cold start of this year will lend support to prices way into summer, as the large surplus in hydro reservoirs from last year is completely gone," Bergvik said.

Water reserves in the Nordic region had touched a seven-month high in November, 2020, pushing power producers to the verge of spilling the surplus.

Nordic water reserves available 15 days ahead were seen at 1.02 terawatt hours (TWh) below normal, compared to 1.7 TWh below normal on Friday.

"The weekend and next week will be more active with near or above normal temperatures and precipitation in the entire area," said Georg Muller, a meteorologist at Refinitiv.

The Nordic power price for next-day physical delivery , or system price, rose 2.41 euro to 53.02 euros/MWh at an auction on the Nord Pool exchange, coming above average analysts' estimates of 52.20 euros/MWh.

Lower wind power output on Tuesday is supporting spot prices, according to Ole Tom Djupskaas, a power analyst with Refinitiv.

In the financial market, the day-ahead contract was last traded at 51.00 euros/MWh.

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