Australia boasted another solid trade surplus in July as a jump in gold exports offset supply bottlenecks for coal, while strength in imports of cars and heavy machinery pointed to resilient domestic demand. The resource-rich country reported a surplus on goods and services of A$1.83 billion ($1.9 billion) in July, a shade above June's total. That brought the running 12-month total to a healthy A$21 billion, mostly thanks to sky high prices for key exports like coal and iron ore.
"We estimate the total surplus for 2011/12 could easily be up at A$26 billion, which will be very supportive for the economy," said Michael Workman, a senior economist at Commonwealth Bank. "We expect export volumes to rise dramatically over the next few years, which will keep mining profits high and spin off a lot of money for investment."
Exports did dip 0.9 percent in July, mainly due to a drop in shipments from coal mines which are still recovering from flooding earlier in the year. Imports also eased 0.9 percent, largely due to a drop in oil, but imports of consumer and capital goods both rose 3 percent in the month.
The data had little affect on markets which were beset by sovereign debt concerns in Europe. The flight of money from the euro lifted the US dollar across the board and knocked Australia's currency down 0.5 percent to $1.0400. Markets continue to wager that concerns over global growth would push the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) into easing policy, in part because it is one of the few developed nations that has room to actually cut rates.
Interbank futures imply around 82 basis points of cuts in the 4.75 percent cash rate by Christmas, though that compares to a peak of more than 160 basis points last month. Still, while investors fret about a possible return to recession in the United States and European Union, Australia is lucky to be far more leveraged to the still-strong Asian region.
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