Musharraf after 2007

Federal Minister of Information Sheikh Rashid's statement to journalists the other day that General Musharraf would continue as President after his current term expires in 2007, has raised a mini-furore throughout the country. The opposition and analysts have described the statement as a blow to democracy in Pakistan. To add fuel to the fire, Sheikh Rashid went on to say that nothing could be said at this stage whether General Musharraf will also retain the post of Chief of Army Staff, in his second term as President. The reaction across the board to this 'announcement' has been negative. Observers have characterised General Musharraf after this statement as no different from previous military rulers with a penchant for clinging to power by hook or by crook for as long as possible.
Some have pointed to the fact that the ban on Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif playing any role in Pakistan's future politics is intended to pre-empt the emergence of an alternative leadership, thereby strengthening the self-created perception of indispensability.
Unfortunately, despite the widespread dismay at the possibility of General Musharraf extending his stay in power, let alone dual office, the West, led by the US, still seems to be supportive of his regime for reasons of expediency related to the war on terrorism. This may give heart to General Musharraf and his tribe of hangers-on, but it is always a precarious prospect for perpetuation of one-man military rule against the will of the people.
What is even more troubling about Sheikh Rashid's vision is that he implies certain things that will queer the political pitch even further than its already awry state. The assumption in Sheikh Rashid's categorical tone when asserting that General Musharraf will continue as President even after 2007, is that the yet-to-be elected Assemblies (which will come into being only after the next general elections) will be inclined to elect General Musharraf as President for another term or in the other case the constitutional procedure for the election of President may again not be followed. Unless Sheikh Rashid knows something the rest of us mortals are not privy to, how can he forecast the future so categorically? The only logical conclusion that the cynics amongst us would draw from this is that the government has definite plans to rig not only the general election in 2007, but most likely also the local bodies elections in July this year to provide the grass-roots support for whatever manipulated edifice is intended to be raised at the national level.
As it is, the public infighting in the PML(Q) and the ruling coalition has forced General Musharraf to shed the pretence of distance from the day to day political fray and the internal fissures afflicting the ruling circles. His presiding over a meeting of the PML(Q) in Islamabad the other day to press all leaders and factions of the party to cement the obvious cracks in their unity and prepare together for the forthcoming local bodies elections has stripped the mask in an unmistakable manner from what everyone knew anyway.
The PML(Q) and the allies clinging to its coattails for power have only one real head - General Musharraf himself. The troubling thought in this context also is that in the light of the arithmetic of the Assemblies elected as a result of the 2002 general elections, General Musharraf has had to rely on some components of the opposition to garner a two thirds majority whenever an amendment to the Constitution was sought.
He may have lured the MMA into supporting the 17th Amendment by promising to doff his army uniform by December 2004, only to renege on it later, but that embarrassing experience may have also convinced the ruling circles that whatever manipulation took place in 2002 could not be tried again as a sure solution to their problem, and that a two thirds majority must be assured in 2007.
General Musharraf also managed to get the National Assembly to pass a dual office Act, allowing him to retain both the posts of President and army chief simultaneously, but no ordinary law passed by parliament can supersede the Constitution. That much abused basic document lays down that no holder of an office of profit in the service of the state can run for any public office until two years after retirement.
The Supreme Court that gave General Musharraf permission to amend the Constitution to further the seven point agenda he had outlined on taking over in 1999, nevertheless laid down certain parameters that cannot be disturbed. The Constitution's basic character was protected by the apex court. That means only a constituent assembly can change the fundamentals of the Constitution. If that reading is accepted, there will have to be parliamentary form of government in the country and there can be no deviation from it to a semi-presidential or a presidential system.
Of course, the correct interpretation of the Constitution and its provisions has not in the past, and may not in future too, restrain someone who is determined to seek high office irrespective of the Constitutional provisions. But if General Musharraf is persuaded that this is the path for him to follow, sadly the only comment possible would be that the future of the country remains in hock to the will and whims of one man, to the detriment of a democratic polity reflecting the will of the people.