NEW YORK: Stronger-than-expected hiring by US employers in October and a small increase in the jobless rate will have a neutral or insignificant impact on US presidential elections next week, according to most economists surveyed in a Reuters poll on Friday.
Twenty-four economists said the payrolls data would have a "neutral" impact on next Tuesday's elections, while 15 said the data would have an insignificant impact. Ten economists said the data would have a significant impact, while four said it would have a very insignificant impact, and one said it would have a very significant impact.
The government on Friday said employers added 171,000 jobs last month, up from 148,000 new jobs in September. The unemployment rate in October edged up, however, by a 10th of a point to 7.9 percent.
The boost in hiring was seen as a hopeful sign for a lackluster economy that has been a drag on Democratic President Barack Obama's re-election bid. Republican rival Mitt Romney has often pointed to persistently high unemployment as a failure of the Obama presidency.
The median of forecasts from 45 economists was for the gigantic storm Sandy, which devastated New York City and the New Jersey coast early this week, to knock 0.2 percent off of fourth- quarter gross domestic product.
The median of forecasts from 46 economists in the poll was for the Federal Reserve's latest round of stimulus, known as QE3, to eventually total $615 billion. The median in a similar poll conducted Oct. 5 was for QE3 to total $600 billion.
Under QE3, which was announced in September as an open-ended program, the Fed is buying about $40 billion per month of mortgage-backed securities.
A total of 44 economists of 55 expect the Fed to buy Treasuries under QE3 when its Operation Twist stimulus program expires at the end of December.
Under Twist, the Fed is selling shorter-dated Treasuries and using the proceeds to buy longer-dated US government debt in a bid to lower longer-term interest rates like those on mortgages.
Comments
Comments are closed.