Escalating US-Iran tensions

President Trump had promised to withdraw US troops from the Middle East but the drone strike he ordered on Friday at Baghdad Airport, killing Qassem Soleimani, commander of Iran's elite Quds Force, has increased the risk of tensions escalating into a wider conflict. Trigger for the killing, according to the Pentagon, was the surrounding of the American embassy in Baghdad by a pro-Iran mob. Those people were angered by American air strikes that left dead 25 members of the Kataeb Hezbollah group, whom Washington had accused of killing in a rocket attack an American contractor working in Iraq. President Trump is not known for thinking through the consequences of his actions. This one has drawn sharp criticism even from prominent American politicians. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said it risks provoking a "dangerous escalation of violence" while Democratic Party presidential candidate Joe Biden's apt comment was that "President Trump just tossed a stick of dynamite into a tinderbox."

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, an Iran hawk who is reported to have advocated, in private conversations, regime change in the Islamic republic, claimed the action would be widely applauded across the region. China's foreign minister Wang has reportedly told his Iranian counterpart Zarif that "the dangerous US military operation violates the basic norms of international relations and will aggravate regional tensions and turbulence." While France reacted by saying "we have woken up to a more dangerous world," Russian President Vladimir Putin said, "this action can seriously aggravate the situation in the region." Pakistan, worried about a possible blowback, has expressed its "deep concern". Soon after the strike Pompeo called Pakistan Army chief Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa and spoke "about US defensive action to kill Qassem Soleimani." As expected, Gen Bajwa called for "maximum restraint and constructive engagement", also expressing the hope that the 'new situation' would not take the focus away from the Afghan peace process.

Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has vowed "severe revenge" for the assassination of Soleimani along with ten others. This is no empty threat. In fact, conscious of its seriousness Trump is now sending 3,000 additional troops to the region. The world, meanwhile, holds its breath because Iran is quite capable of delivering on that threat through the 'Axis of Resistance' it leads in the region. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrullah has warned of "appropriate punishment to these criminal assassins." The Qais al-Khazaly and leader of a powerful Iraqi Shia group, Moqtada Sadr, called for their fighters to "be ready." The Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen have also called for "swift reprisals." They would all be looking for targets of opportunity to attack US assets, aplenty in the region. Also, conscious of the fact that disruptions in oil supplies can cause turmoil in the world economy and hurt the US too, Iran may block the strategic Strait of Hormuz through which passes nearly 25 percent of global oil supplies and a third of the world's liquefied natural gas. Already on the very first day of the 'incident' oil prices jumped up by more than $3. Iran is not expected to let this provocation pass. Something will happen. We can only hope it will not lead to a wider regional conflagration.