The Cabinet Committee on Energy was briefed by the Power Division of the position for the upcoming six months. And not a pretty picture it shows. This is, of course, assuming that the people in the power division know much more than the average Joe out there. That, there will be load management (read: load shedding) in 2019 peak season as well – is disturbing to know the least. People have time and again been told that Pakistan has got out of the load shedding era.
Pakistan’s total installed power generation capacity stands at 33837 MW, of which the dependable capacity is 30590 MW. The power demand has been on the decline in the past few months, owing to multiple factors. Even if the power division’s projection of higher demand than yesteryear is taken on face value – it is painful to know that the system would still not be able to meet the peak demand.
The peak generation in 2018 was achieved in August with 14 billion units. The shortfall was believed to be maximum 4 billion units. Even if in the unlikeliest of scenarios, the power demand decides to jump by an unprecedented 10 percent in the peak season – it would not cross 20 billion units. Recall that we have been repeatedly told that the first phase of CPEC was all about power generation and how the previous government chest thumped itself for the achievement – and not wrongly either. But to know that all those thousands of megawatts can still not cater for peak demand is an egg on the face moment – for all those involved – back then and now.
Granted that there would be a few thousand megawatts not available at all times – such as hydel, wind, solar. But even hydel’s availability is at its peak in the peak power demand season. Pakistan has installed enough plants on coal, RLNG, and nuclear in the past three years. To be told that that is not going to be enough is worrying.
Readying for more furnace oil based generation, having told the refineries to ensure minimum FO production tells - the system has still not been able to rectify the generation mix completely. The dependable capacity still has FO as its second highest source of generation following hydel. Some were worried of not enough demand earlier (read: Power: Low demand, high charges, published Dec 20, 2018), but to know that supply, not demand, is still the problem, is far from heartening.
From what is being told, come peak demand 2019, Pakistan will be running all available plants in the merit order, from the cheapest to the most expensive – and yet there would be load shedding. That essentially means FO generation would be back in the fold along with FO imports, the fuel cost would go dearer, capacity payments are already high – and there would not be enough power to meet the demand.
Don’t forget that the circular debt aspect of the chain remains unresolved. With high generation to the tune of 15-16 billion units – at a much higher cost – expect it to only worsen. And this is without mentioning the transmission and distribution woes. The sector has been offered lucrative enough incentives and returns – and it must be more efficient than this. Merely having plants won’t cut the deal. Having them produce enough electricity would.
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