The economics of industrialisation

As I hear anchors on State television going gaga on the screen regarding investment in the country one wonders whether I am living in Pakistan or in an alien country. They are so far away from facts and blatantly wagging their tongues in front of the government politicians and asserting how well the government policies are performing. This was the day that we lost one of our finest sons in a suicide bombing scene at Attock. When will we learn that truth is an essential element in a democratic process? Go to Vaclav Havel the man who led a silken revolution to get rid of the Russians from Czechoslovakia and then accepted the peoples' verdict on the break-up of Slovaks and Czecks. Here we have liars and profound liars that speak everything that is favourable. The killing of home minister of Punjab indicates that all is not well with the security situation. A son worthy of Pakistan was lost and here we have defunct government anchors running about the potential of Pakistan. What is the litmus test for industry? When working in the planning department of Punjab we worked out a system of determining what was the investment that is coming through? Remember there was no electricity/energy shortage in the country. The number of industrial units was then extrapolated from the given data.
The recent data issued by the GoP indicates the dismal affairs in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). The figures indicate that there has been a net investment of 75 million dollars while the outgoing has been 96 million dollars. This on a month by month basis compared to last year which was Pakistan's worst year. Three factors that governments have to address are in the realm of energy crisis, security unrest and political unrest not to mention the lack of human skilled resources. And yet the official TV channel and the idiotic presenters keep on stating that everything is fine and that we have investment coming in. Where and how? The free fall of investment in 2014 still continues. What little investment we have is because of a very small base and entirely due to coal based actions from our Chinese friends (44%). The total Chinese investment stands at 77%. So are we not isolated? Narendra Modi goes to the Mideast and gets a promise of Rs 475 crores of promised investment for India. We send our dog and pony show teams and all that they do is come back empty handed, a good travel show and nothing else. I have so many of these promises made never to be kept. Why make them; probably to satisfy their egos and to make a fool of the country. We are the greatest nation in making hollow promises. Where is the growth that textile promised? Where are the heaven makers? Shamelessly we project what is not projectable. The fact that impossible assertions are made indicates the collective un-wisdom of Pakistanis. The PM took an initiative regarding entrepreneurs. We do not know what are the facts and which risk taking entrepreneurs were selected and what was the criteria. If that amount is lost then we know that the money was given on other than economic considerations; maybe parochial maybe to look after their own constituents. Can Pakistan prosper under these circumstances? Every time we lose time we lose a lot of ourselves and our countrymen suffer. Can we then have a leadership that is unselfish? Can we have a Thomas Jefferson in our midst or will we have a mirage of such leaders? The American people collected funds to pay off his debts; while we have a nigger in every woodpile. Governance is not child's play. Neither can you tinker with the social systems. What the government does has two serious consequences. First is the intended one and the second is the unintended one. All policy matters require that we make the unintended consequences as easy and simple as we can. East Pakistan was a major disaster because of our government policies. We have never critically examined what we did there. The Hamood-ur-Rahman report despite it being voluminous does not give the causes that led to the debacle in the country's history. It demolished the two-nation theory. Under these circumstances will investment take place? A magic wand will not be possible. So what will happen to employment that is now a requirement for the youth of this country? How will inflation pan out? How will deficit financing be responsible for economic management? The misuses keep on increasing and increasingly the government of the day allows it to be swept under the carpet.
The only institution that happens to be working is the army but you cannot have it doing everything while the civilians sit back and lord it on the people of this country. The country will not develop with the current set of mindset. It requires a different set of thinking - a different voyage that is compatible with risk taking. So the ministries concerned with governance of economic matters have to be more not only vigilant but more innovative. Innovation does not come by outsourcing by the policymakers. It comes through hard work. Does Pakistan have any idea men? You cannot run a country by wrong assumptions. Cumulative experience is not what is wanted rather it has to be exponential
The unintended consequences of flaws in government policy will lead to further conflicts. You cannot expect the army to do all the hard work whether with the militants or with natural disasters. The civilians mostly politicians have to lay down the rule of law and make it happen irrespective of caste and creed. The danger is that if this is not done the slavish people will gather round the decision-makers and take everything away. As one former Justice of the High Court stated that Pakistanis have a habit of taking everything home whether they want it or not. The greedy desire is uppermost. Let me add that there are no exceptions. Everyone has his hands in the till. Can we then have a leadership that is one-off in terms of greed? The recent episode of some ministers wagging their tongues unnecessarily has now become the culture of the political system.
Macroeconomic figures are not about foreign exchange reserves but about creating happiness. Have they done this? The wrongs of society are being reflected in our systems today. Yes?