MUMBAI: The Indian rupee is expected to inch up at the open on Monday in the wake of a decline in US Treasury yields after data indicated that US manufacturing activity contracted more than expected in February.
Non-deliverable forwards indicate the rupee will open at around 82.85-82.86 to the US dollar compared with 82.90 in the previous session.
The rupee has managed to reach near 82.85 a number of times recently, following which it is likely that the Reserve Bank of India has intervened, according to several traders.
“Yet again, (USD/INR) will have a crack at the 82.80-82.85 support. It is more than likely that it will not add up to much,” an FX trader at a bank said.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said its US purchasing managers index for manufacturing fell to 47.8 in January from 49.1 in the previous month.
Economists polled by Reuters had expected a 49.5 reading. US equities and Treasuries rallied on Friday and the dollar index fell. Investors priced in more Federal Reserve rate cuts through 2024.
The rally in Treasuries was further helped by the University of Michigan’s surveys of consumers, with all three measures for sentiment, current conditions and consumer expectations declining more than expected.
Indian rupee logs third straight weekly rise
Softer data and Fed comments suggested that the January spike in Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation was likely transitory and was pushing US yields lower, ANZ said.
The focus this week will be on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony to US lawmakers on Thursday and the US jobs data the following day.
Powell’s comments will come on back of a pushback from Fed officials over early rate cuts.
He will be speaking two weeks before the March 19-20 Fed meeting.
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