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KARACHI: The sales of petroleum products in the country increased by 19 percent on month-on-month basis to 1.3 million tons in October 2023 while the Ex-Furnace Oil (FO) sales remained up 24 percent MoM in this month.

The MoM jump in sales is due to low base of the previous month amid higher prices and consumers were waiting in anticipation of a decline in prices to fuel up their tanks, experts said.

Average petrol price of October 2023 came down to Rs 303 per litre compared to Rs 318 per litre in September 2023. Similarly average diesel prices came down to Rs 311 per litre in October 2023 from Rs 321 per litre in September 2023.

On YoY basis, in October 2023 total OMC’s sales down 24 percent while Ex-FO sales down 17 percent.

The YoY fall in sales is due to higher fuel prices and economic slowdown, Myesha Sohail at Topline Securities said.

FO sales for October 2023 fell by 74 percent YoY and 37 percent MoM to 54,000 tons due to lower FO based power generation.

This takes first four months of FY24 total sales to 5.1 million tons, down 17 percent YoY while Ex-FO sales down by just 6.0 percent YoY to 4.7 million tons in the first four months of FY24.

To highlight, average petrol prices in the first four months of FY24 clocked in at Rs 290 per litre up 25 percent YoY and average diesel prices up 19 percent YoY to Rs 293 litre in the first four months of FY24.

Among the listed entities, Attock Petroleum (APL) sales clocked at 124,000 tons, a 10 percent decline YoY and a 1.0 percent increase MoM. FO sales fell by 53 percent YoY and 39 percent MoM.

Pakistan State Oil (PSO) saw a fall of 26 percent YoY while up 23 percent MoM to 628,000 tons. FO sales declined by 95 percent YoY and 55 percent MoM. PSO total market share stood at 50 percent in October 2023 compared to 51 percent in the same month in 2022 and 48 percent in September 2023.

Shell Pakistan (SHEL) saw a 30 percent fall YoY and a 12 percent MoM rise to 90,000 tons. HSD saw a 36 percent fall YoY and 28 percent rise MoM, which majorly contributed to the company sales.

“For FY24, we anticipate a potential recovery in Ex-FO OMC sales, estimated to increase by up to 5 percent”, Myesha Sohail said and added this is primarily attributed to a pickup in economic activity, where interest rates are expected to decline in the latter half of FY24, coupled with a favorable agricultural crop this year.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2023

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