MOSCOW: The Russian rouble rose on Tuesday as investors bet the central bank would hike rates at an extraordinary policy meeting after the Russian currency tumbled past 101 per US dollar on Monday and prompted a Kremlin call for tougher monetary policy.
The rouble, which has lost more than a fifth of its value against the dollar since the Ukraine war began, rose 1.6% to 96.14 per dollar by 0546 GMT after falling close to 102 in intraday trade on Monday.
It had gained 2% to trade at 104.92 versus the euro and firmed 1.8% against the yuan to 13.15.
Russia’s central bank will hold an extraordinary meeting at on Tuesday to discuss the level of its key interest rate, currently at 8.5%. A decision will be published at 10:30 Moscow time (0730 GMT), the central bank said.
“We believe the regulator may raise the key rate to 12%, which will help the rouble return to more reasonable fundamental levels in the coming months (below 90 to the dollar),” said Sber Investments in a note.
The central bank’s most recent emergency hike came in late February 2022 with a rate raise to 20% in the immediate fallout of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Rouble weakens again after limited reprieve from central bank interventions
After that, the bank steadily lowered the cost of borrowing before quickening inflation forced a 100-basis-point hike to 8.5% last month. “The central bank has all the tools to normalise the situation in the near future,” President Vladimir Putin’s economic adviser Maxim Oreshkin said on Monday.
“It is in the interests of the Russian economy to have a strong rouble.”
The rouble has raced a turbulent course since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, slumping to a record low of 120 against the dollar a month later before recovering to a more than seven-year high a few months later, supported by capital controls and surging export revenues.
While Putin has repeatedly hailed the resilience of Russia’s $2 trillion economy, the strains of fighting the biggest land war in Europe since World War Two and what the West casts as the toughest sanctions in history are starting to bite.
The weakening rouble has pushed up prices for a host of everyday items ahead of a presidential election in March 2024, though higher interest rates would make life harder for borrowers, including companies and the government as it finances military operations in Ukraine.
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