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EDITORIAL: Chief of Army Staff General Asim Munir while addressing the inaugural ceremony of the Khanewal Model Agriculture Farm under the Green Initiative stated that “no power in the world can stop us from progressing, and an agriculture revolution will happen in Pakistan anyway.”

This statement was propitiously made on the second day of the three-day United Nations-brokered summit aimed at tackling the “broken” global food system where millions are starving, and the planet suffering wherein it was acknowledged that the food sector involves and is affected by multiple sectors including urbanisation, climate change, technology, government policy as well as the availability of imports to meet domestic supply shortfalls that have been severely compromised with the end of the Ukraine-Russia grain deal with little prospect at this time of a renewal.

Or, in other words, while technology/mechanisation is one of the key ingredients for increasing the yield per hectare, the extent of its use has to be carefully balanced with the employment currently being provided by the farm sector that may necessitate a gradual change over to enhancing mechanisation to enable the creation of jobs in the economy in other sectors.

Between 1991 and 2021, the share of agriculture in total employment in India dropped by 20 percentage points – yet in Pakistan there has been a decline of 8 percentage points in the comparable period. One reason could well be that India’s industrial sector’s diversity as well as output and employment changed over time, while in Pakistan, the industrial sector remains largely the same, with five major export- oriented sectors, and the country continues to export its surplus instead of producing to export - a long standing Business Recorder recommendation.

Climate change, with Pakistan as one of the most affected countries in the world, is yet another factor that is a major impediment to farm output.

Thus with or without the use of advanced technology, climate change can play a negative role in crop output as it did last summer and with rains this year forecast to be above normal levels there is a fear that output may be compromised yet again – output of essential crops like wheat which, in the event of a shortfall, would require imports that would command a higher price if the Russia-Ukraine grain deal is not revived, and cotton, a cash crop that is basic input to the textile sector, which is a major industrial sector employer, and which accounted for nearly 60 percent of all the country’s export earnings in 2022-23.

The government policy also plays a key role in farm output; however, by and large this role is directly proportional to the government’s capacity to extend subsidies, and here too the government is severely hamstrung given our almost non-existent fiscal space, which is an outcome of not only low revenue generation capacity but also a tendency to overspend on current expenditure by subsequent administrations, including the incumbent government.

Be that as it may, while one can fully endorse the Chief of Army Staff’s belief that security and the economy go hand in hand, as security without the economy or an economy without security is simply impossible, yet, what has to be acknowledged is that the economy and security must be seen within a macro-picture for greater effectivity, looking at each sector or subsector in isolation will not achieve the desired results.

Pakistan at the present junction needs a macroeconomic framework crafted by economists with the overarching objective of achieving development that spans all income groups and not limited to the elite who may or may not be able to ensure a trickle-down effect – a view that empirical studies reveal is not as automatic as argued by economists of yesteryears.

We fully support the COAS’s resolve to throw away the begging bowl, however, many in the past have had a similar intent but intent without holistic policy measures and their execution is unlikely to succeed.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2023

Comments

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Azeem Hakro Jul 26, 2023 09:58am
To address the challenges, the government can take two approaches. Firstly, it can encourage corporate farming and attract investment in agriculture from both local and foreign sources. There is a vast uncultivated land available that can be utilized for farming. 2ndly, the government can support small-scale farmers by providing them with loans, machinery n assistance to increase their production. This way, they can adopt new farming methods. Farmers are currently facing challenges due to inflation, expensive inputs, removal of subsidies, high-interest rates on loans, and unpredictable weather changes impacting their crops. To support them, the government can encourage investments from large companies, provide loans and assistance to small farmers, and promote smart agricultural practices with climate-resistant seeds. The GPI is not only a project but a vision, a responsibility, Challenge n an opportunity. Let us make Pakistan green again.
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Tariq Qurashi Jul 26, 2023 10:57am
Agriculture has long been ignored in the country. Since 65% of our population depend on agriculture, this has been a big shortcoming. If the new focus on commercial farming ignores the small farmer, this again would be a mistake because the majority of our farms are small-holdings. The plan to rejuvenate agriculture should include and encourage the following: -Encouraging drip and sprinkler irrigation because 97% of our water is wasted in flood irrigation. -Credit availability to small farmers. -Support prices that are realistic -Hybrid seed production farms -Educate farmers on horticultural practices using net tunnels. -Encourage mixed farming with livestock and crops. -Reinvigorate agricultural research centers and universities. -Encourage Cheese manufacture for export-maybe bring in FDI/knowhow here. -Floriculture for export -Ensure customs processes are fast enough for perishable agricultural exports. -Agricultural storage and cold storage. -Livestock farming for meat export.
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KU Jul 26, 2023 12:03pm
There are around 8 agricultural zones in our country, each with its unique set of fertilizer and irrigation requirements, and opportunities, but none of these zones have ever been considered as opportune. The fact is that our focus and interest in agriculture feasibility and new technology does not exist, nor does the role of banks and credit. The opening pomp and fair of model farming in Khanewal district, a few days back, maybe a good thing, but farmers of the area know that the groundwater is not fit for agriculture, good luck with that. Just review India’s agricultural revolution in the past 30 years, they have increased their output manifolds, and mainly because of controlled fertilizer and fuel prices as well as the use of efficient and new methods of cultivation and irrigation. The agriculture contribution to their GDP averaged around IRs. 4530 billion annually during the period 2010 to 2022.
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Tulukan Mairandi Jul 26, 2023 02:16pm
Our soil is all ruined by years of using cheap poisonous Chinese fertilizers. Even Chinese and Taiwanese agriculture experts said nothing can be done but to sprinkle CIRP (expensive, from Australia) and leave the land alone for 2 decades. The extent of poisoning is so bad.
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zaya zaya Jul 26, 2023 05:17pm
Building Castles in the air as Asim Munir and Shehbaz Sharif are doing is such a fantasy, they are likely to start living in it together without families, then what...; empty Election Rhetoric is easy, work on the ground is poor.
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Yousaf Hyat Jul 28, 2023 11:34pm
We must deregulate our economy and give global access to our farmers to buy seed n fertilizer wherever it’s good n cheap.
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