GENEVA: Exports of Ukrainian corn are expected to fall 30% to 19 million tonnes next season, with the war-torn country on course to harvest a much smaller crop this year, the Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) said on Tuesday.
Production of corn and other cereals in Ukraine, one of the world’s largest grain exporters, is expected to fall for a second consecutive year after farmers reduced sowings because of the war and turned to more profitable oilseeds.
Corn has been particularly hit as it is relatively more expensive to grow, dry and transport than other crops.
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UGA estimates the corn harvest will be at 21.1 million tonnes, down from 27.3 million last year, UGA head Nikolay Gorbachov told Reuters on the sidelines of the GrainCom conference in Geneva.
“The lower export forecast is due to a lower (crop) area, but also because we compare it to the high ones in the current campaign, when we had huge stocks,” Gorbachov said.
The estimates were based on the assumption of an extension of the deal allowing the safe export of Ukrainian grain, which may end on May 18, which is indispensable to avoid a surge in prices, Gorbachov said.
Corn crop forecasts have varied widely as sowings kick off in Ukraine, with the farm ministry pegging the harvest at around 22 million tonnes earlier this month, of which 15 million tonnes could potentially be exported.
Chicago-based AgResourse consultancy forecast Ukraine’s 2023 corn exports at just 12.5 million tonnes next season based on a crop of 19 million tonnes, its president Dan Basse told the GrainCom conference.
“Unfortunately the war is still going, struggles are there, the price of diesel and other inputs are extremely high, which is such a challenge for the Ukrainian farmer,” he said.
For wheat, UGA projected Ukraine’s crop would fall to 17 million tonnes from 20.2 million last year. Of this, 14 million tonnes could be exported, down from 15.5 million in 2022/23, he said.
Oilseeds production, in contrast, was set to rebound significantly this year with the sunflower seed harvest gaining over 20% to 12.65 million tonnes, still well below the 16.9 million tonnes harvested in 2021 before the war, UGA said.
Ukraine is traditionally the world’s largest sunflower seed grower and sunflower oil exporter.
Soybean production was expected to jump to 4.4 million tonnes, up from 3.7 million in 2022, while rapeseed output would be at 3.7 million, up from 3.6 million last year, UGA said.
However, soybean exports were expected to fall slightly to 3 million tonnes after trebling to 3.3 million this season while rapeseed exports would remain at 3.4 million tonnes.
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