FORT COLLINS: End-of-year trade in Chicago grains and oilseeds can often be mundane, but that has not been the case with many contracts now at multi-year highs. Drama between the soybean products in particular had speculators on their toes last week.
Mid-2019 was the last time money managers sustained bearish views in the CBOT oilshare, which measures soybean oil’s share of value in the soy products, but they were headed that direction in the week ended Dec. 14.
The managed money oilshare net long fell to just 4,249 futures and options contracts from 30,930 a week earlier, and the new stance was the least optimistic in more than a year. Most-active CBOT soybean meal futures surged 7.8% through Dec. 14, though soybean oil tumbled 8.5%.
CBOT oilshare last week fell to the lowest levels since April after reaching in October the highest point in more than two decades. Tightness in the US soymeal market and concerns that less soybean oil may be used for renewable fuels next year headlined the moves.
Soymeal futures through Friday were up 11% on the month after reaching more than five-month highs on Wednesday while soyoil hit eight-month lows on the same day. However, oil jumped more than 3% in the last three sessions and meal added 0.7%. Oil is down 2.2% on the month.
Money managers through Dec. 14 added more than 12,000 soybean meal futures and options contracts to their net long, which reached 40,534. Other reportable traders added more than 9,000 contracts to their meal net long, marking their biggest weekly round of buying since April 2016.
That is based on data published Friday by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Money managers dumped just over 14,000 soybean oil futures and options contracts that week, reducing their net long to 44,783 contracts. Other traders were also healthy sellers.
CORN, BEANS, WHEAT
In the week ended Dec. 14, money managers increased their net long position in CBOT corn futures and options to 345,980 contracts from 332,501 a week earlier, mostly based on the addition of new longs. Funds’ gross corn short at 25,154 contracts is among the lightest this calendar year.
The commercial net short in corn is historically large at 380,216 futures and options contracts and nearly identical to the year-ago position. However, commercials’ net short in soybeans of 22,199 futures and options contracts is significantly smaller than a year ago, when the net short of 235,574 was by far a record for the date.
Money managers increased their net long in CBOT soybean futures and options by about 3,100 to 40,975 contracts, but that was because short covering offset a reduction in longs, similar to the previous week.
Most-active CBOT corn futures on Friday touched $5.98-3/4 per bushel, the contract’s highest since July 1, and soybeans hit a three-month high of $12.97-1/2. Those contracts ended the year-ago week at $4.37-1/2 and $12.20, respectively.
Soybeans jumped 2% over the last three sessions on soyoil strength and concerns over hot and dry weather for crops in South America, and corn futures were up fractionally. Funds have reluctantly maintained bullish soybean views in recent weeks, but they may have been comparably more enthusiastic late last week.
Enthusiasm is not the theme in CBOT wheat, however, as money managers flipped to a net short of 7,303 futures and options contracts as of Dec. 14. That compares with a net long of 721 contracts in the prior week.
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