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Pakistan’s real effective exchange rate (REER) - a measure of the value of a currency against a weighted average of several foreign currencies - declined to 99.9 in June, said the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) on Friday.

“The REER index clocked in at 99.9 in Jun-21, after rising to 103 in Apr-21,” said SBP in a tweet post. The REER displayed a depreciation of 2.3% over May-21, the central bank added, as Pakistan's goods become more competitive in the international markets.

The central bank data showed that NEER (nominal effective exchange rate) during June stood at 60.01, whereas REER at 99.85.

A REER below 100 means the country’s exports are competitive, while imports are expensive. The situation reverses when REER stands above 100 on the index.

The decrease in REER implies that exports have become cheaper and imports more expensive; therefore, a decrease indicates a gain in trade competitiveness, as per the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

According to an explanatory SBP video, REER is an index number that is free from any measuring unit and is calculated with reference to a particular year called the base year which is arbitrary and subject to change over time. “Currently, the SBP is using (currencies’) weight of 37 major trading partners and competitors of Pakistan for REER calculation. These weights represent not only bilateral trade volumes but also a competition in the third markets,” stated SBP in the video.

The REER is calculated by multiplying NEER with the relative price index or RPI.

C/A surplus turns to deficit on higher import bill

Pakistan’s cumulative current account (C/A) posted a deficit of $1.8 billion during July-June FY21, mainly due to a higher import bill.

The current account, on a cumulative basis, was in a surplus in the July-May FY21 period on the back of record home remittances inflows, recovery in exports, and deferred interest payments on external debt. However, the surplus turned into a deficit with last-month's figures alone mainly due to rising industrial imports. The FY21 ended up with a current account deficit of $1.85 billion against $4.449-billion deficit in FY20, depicting a decline of 58 percent or $2.59 billion.

Rupee declines to nine-month low as import bill mounts

Earlier this week, the Pakistani rupee also declined to its lowest value in almost nine months, losing close to one percent against the US Dollar in inter-bank trading on Monday.

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samir sardana Jul 24, 2021 06:20pm
Part 1 A nation with a trade and CA deficit,will have a secular currency decline,w.r.t the USD,especially since the US economy is thriving and yields are EXPECTED to rise,and the Fed is expected to HIKE.However,the SPB can make the decline slow and predictable,but also, to ensure that it is "not worthwhile to speculate",on the decline Speculators are attracted to predictable sharp moves in the PKR.The Shipping Bills and Invoices filed at Port Qasim for Pakistan fuel imports are known to "informed punters" (as they are large FX exposures,of a few importers).Thus,they know the COMMITTED dates of payments and CRYSTALLISED DATE OF PAYMENTS. SBP also prepares the FX ageing outflows,and this is also known to banks,and thus,the "informed punters". The same applies to the EID inflows This makes speculation easy,for the punters.If SBP intervenes in the FX market,it is losing its gunpowder,for no reason.dindooohindoo
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samir sardana Jul 24, 2021 06:22pm
Part 2 Therefore,the SBP needs to create a framework,to encourage roll overs,and match it to periods of expected large inflows,with a planned depreciation in PKR,to offset the depreciation in the INR and Taka..Else Exporters will route exports via shells,hold export proceeds in USD in the shell,and bring the USD into Pakistan at their option,and then again,hold it in USD accounts,and convert it as the best rates. IS THIS FX GAMBLING,THE CORE SKILL OF AN EXPORTER ? Or SHOULD it be ? In the above framework,exporters will book the USD forward,at the time of the export order,and the SBP will have a complete database of expected dates of FX inflows,and that will futher aid the SBP in planning the rollovers.It will also benefit the exporters,as it will freeze his profits,and ensure that the planned profit is as close as possible,to the actual profit. This will also kill the grey market premium for the USD,and reduce the hawala routing of USD,as the PKR will have a secular decline.dindooohindoo
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