PRAGUE: Poland's zloty should gain almost 6% over the next 12 months, reclaiming lost ground after falling to a 12-year low, while Romania's leu is seen missing out on gains expected in central Europe, a Reuters poll showed. In March the zloty posted its worst month since the Covid-19 pandemic started a year ago, hitting 4.675 to the euro - its lowest since April 2009 - and losing as much as 3.4%.
But the currency is now expected to firm, with analysts forecasting the Polish currency would start climbing this month and reach 4.40 to the euro in the next year, an unchanged 12-month forecast versus the poll a month ago.
Central Europe is battling a resurgence of Covid-19 as Poland posted record daily case tallies in the past week, and Hungary and the Czech Republic, according to Our World in Data, show some of the world's highest per-capita seven-day average death rates.
That is putting added burdens on economies that face extended restrictions on retail and hospitality - although not on industry - raising risks to recoveries expected to fuel currency gains this year.
The Czech crown was seen 3.0% stronger, reaching 25.40 to the euro a year from now, up from a 25.50 forecast expected a month ago. Expectations that the central bank could begin raising interest rates later in 2021 - as inflationary pressures remain present - have added support.
In Hungary, the central bank has said it was ready to prevent a sustained rise in inflation. The forint was forecast to firm 2.4% to 355.0 to the euro.
The Romanian leu was expected to ease to 4.96 per euro in the next 12 months, a 0.7% fall from Tuesday's close. The currency, the steadiest in the region with central bank smoothing moves, fell this week out of the 4.80-4.90 trading range it had sat in over the past year in what market players said was a long-due correction.
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