Winners and losers of upcoming Senate polls

Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) is likely to secure majority in the upcoming Senate polls with a projected strength of 30 seats in the house.

The upcoming Senate will comprise 98 members as there will be no elections on the four vacant seats from the country’s tribal areas after their merger with KP.

The Senate strength will be five lower than before as four seats have been dissolved from the tribal areas after their merger with Khyber Pakhtunkhwa while the seat won by PML-N’s Ishaq Dar in 2018 remains suspended until March 2024.

It is not confirmed, whether polls on one seat are suspended or would be held later.

The term-wise data of the Senators shows that out of the 52 members retiring from the present 103-member Senate in March next year, 34 belong to the opposition parties and 18 from the treasury benches.

As far as the PTI is concerned, seven of its present 14 senators — mostly from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa — are due to retire next year.

The PTI, which got representation in the Senate for the first time in 2015, is not only set to improve its representation but also has the chance to become the single largest party in the house due to its numerical strength in the Punjab and KP assemblies.

PTI would still require a two-third majority in parliament for any constitutional amendment particularly those clauses of the eighteenth amendment that the Prime Minister has been railing against for example Article 160 (3A) of the Constitution.

Among other 18 outgoing treasury senators, four belong to the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) and three to the Balochistan Awami Party (BAP), while four independents are from the erstwhile Federally Administered Tribal Areas (Fata).

The PML-N will be the biggest loser in terms of representation in the Senate as 57 per cent of its members — the largest number belonging to a single party — are set to retire this March after completion of their six-year term.

The data shows that out of its 30 present senators, 17 are set to retire in March next year.

Furthermore, the data shows that eight members of the PPP are among the 52 senators who will be completing their six-year term.

The ANP is the only party which is on the brink of elimination from the Senate as its sole member Sitara Ayaz will also stand retired.