A momentous campaign appears likely to miss a target to drive polio from Earth by the end of 2005, health officials said, as the disease fought a stubborn last stand in Asia and Africa. But a "miracle" victory over a crippling virus which blighted the lives of millions remains in reach after a 200 nation campaign which experts have dubbed humanity's greatest-ever public health drive. An outbreak of polio in Nigeria in 2003, which has now spread to 16 countries including Indonesia, where there are six cases and Yemen with more than 60 infections, has frustrated the bid to eradicate polio.
Asia, site this year of a blitz to immunise millions of children at rail stations, bazaars and in schools, is close to being polio free, but the disease lingers in remote African communities seven months before deadline day.
"Looking at the epidemiological evidence, we are optimistic that Asia will achieve that goal," said Oliver Rosenbauer, of the World Health Organisation's polio eradication unit in Geneva.
"In Africa, it is probably more challenging ... to stop it there by the end of this year is technically feasible, but probably we are going to see polio virus transmission into 2006."
The approaching rainy season in Asia and Africa, peak-time for polio transmission is crucial.
"We won't know how really feasible that deadline looks until later in the year," said Claire Hajaj of UNICEF's anti-polio unit in New York.
"It is possible to stop polio in Asia very quickly ... Africa will definitely be more of a challenge to stop polio by the end of the year."
Polio is a virus which can cripple or paralyse victims and even cause death. It can attack anyone, but most of the afflicted are younger than five years old.
This weekend will see a huge immunisation sweep in more than 20 African countries, targeting 77 million children and health officials modelled on previous campaigns which all but snuffed out polio on the continent.
"Polio-free parts of Africa are still under siege, particularly where there are weak health and immunisation services and large groups of un-immunised children," said UNICEF in a statement Friday.
Though new cases of polio, possibly transmitted from Nigeria by Muslims during the annual pilgrimage to Mecca are a "setback," they can be controlled by mass immunisation drives, experts said.
In Indonesia, where polio was first sent packing a decade ago, five million children are expected to be immunised before the end of June.
But the main battle is being fought in six nations where polio is endemic: India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Nigeria, Niger and Egypt.
"Those are the areas where the virus lives. Those are the areas that are going to export the virus," said Rosenbauer.
After an 18-year campaign worth three billion dollars started by US voluntary organisation Rotary International, which includes UN agencies, global governments and health authorities, polio hangs on only in remote areas which have escaped prior immunisation drives.
The Nigerian outbreak took hold after wild rumours circulated that doses of polio vaccine could cause AIDS, or were part of a US-led anti-Muslim plot.
Immunisation resumed last year after a diplomatic offensive which saw interventions by former US secretary of state Colin Powell and Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo.
Andrew Natsios, chief of the US Agency for International Development (USAID), told campaigners at a reception in the US Congress Wednesday: "the victory is not yet won, but we are close." Dr Julie Gerberding, head of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, a leading light in the US end of the 'war on polio,' said the campaign had "almost accomplished a miracle." Despite the setback, the campaign has already eradicated more than 99 percent of global polio cases, which dipped from 350,000 in 1988 to fewer than 1,300 in 2004.
The world will only be certified 'polio-free' if no new cases are detected for three years, under surveillance from an independent verification body.
Comments
Comments are closed.