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South Africa's rand currency has become the latest "miracle" in a country that astonished the world in 1994 with its peaceful transition to democracy and the end of apartheid white minority rule.
The rand hit fresh 3-1/2 year highs below 6.55/dlr recently, the latest pinnacle in a dizzying climb that has confounded those who were writing its obituary only two years ago.
"I would have been really surprised if two years ago someone would have said the rand would get to these levels," said Dawie Roodt, chief economist at Pretoria-based Efficient Research.
"We (South Africans) are in a mode of thinking that there is only one way for the currency to go, and that's down," he said.
Two years ago the rand was not only on the ropes: it lay sprawled on the canvas and was being counted out, bloodied by the hammering it had taken from global markets and investors.
That battering would send it to a record low of l3.85/dlr on December 21 2001, which took its losses in the year to that point to 45 percent.
The factors cited for the plunge of the rand outnumbered the zeros that have been added to Zimbabwe's currency in recent years, but the crisis in South Africa's neighbour was an element. Some investors feared its seizure of white-owned land could someday be repeated in South Africa.
Another was the mass exodus from perceived risky emerging market assets in the wake of the September 11 attacks on the United States. That same aversion to risk would benefit the gold price because of its status as a "safe haven" and help set in motion the rand's startling comeback.
By the end of 2001, the rand was of f the canvas and fighting back. On December 31 that year it stood at 11.9450/dlr - wobbly and bruised, but unbowed.
A Commission of Inquiry would explore the reasons behind its fall but even while it met the currency would begin clawing back its lost ground, inch by bloody inch.
During 2002 it added 40 percent against the dollar, making it the undisputed champion that year in the global currency ring. And it seems determined to ret in at title this year.
Its gains in 2003 stood at around 30 percent.
The reasons given for it rise are almost as numerous as the explanations for its descent.
These include high domestic interest rates that were hoisted by 400 basis points in 2002 to stem the inflationary impact of its slide -at a time when the developed world was trimming its rates to their lowest levels for decades.
Domestic rates have been cut by 500 basis points since June in response to rand strength and slowing inflation, but remain high by global standards. And the rate cuts may spur growth which would be rand positive.
The prudent fiscal policies pursued by the ruling African National Congress government have helped. This is a government that keeps its debt load low and pays what it owes.
Broad dollar weakness related to geopolitical fears has made the rand's sting against the greenback harder than usual.
These same jitters have helped propel the price of gold, which crossed the magic $400 an ounce mark on Wednesday for the first time since March 1996.
This is supportive of the rand, which got its name from the gold reefs that made the country prosper from the 19th century.
But gold's strength has proved to be a double-edged sword for miners who should be cashing in on the increased dollar price, with rand gains more than cancelling out the benefits they may have accrued.
The result has been a hue and cry from the mining industry, which has threatened to cut jobs.
The rand has been blamed for falling exports in other sectors and is seen as crimping growth and hitting jobs in a country with an unemployment rate of over 30 percent and glaring income disparities.
The labour-intensive tourism industry is also being hurt, with foreign visitors finding it more expensive to visit the country's world-class game parks and beaches.
The rand is a young currency with a turbulent history. South Africa changed its currency from pound sterling to the rand in 1961, the same year the country became a republic.
The currency would have plenty of ups and downs. Billions of rand escaped the country during the height of apartheid state repression in the 1980s, much of it illegally.
Some is now seeping back under an amnesty - another factor cited for its newly found prowess.

Copyright Reuters, 2004

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