German investor morale rises for first time in almost a year

MANNHEIM: German analyst and investor sentiment rose in November for the first time in almost a year, surpassing expectations and raising hopes of an improvement in Europe's biggest economy after it dodged recession in the third quarter.

The euro rose to a day high against the dollar and Bund futures reversed gains after the survey was published on Tuesday, although economists warned against reading too much into the rise as the index was still at a low level.

Mannheim-based think tank ZEW's monthly survey of economic sentiment rose to 11.5 points from -3.6 points in October, way over the consensus forecast in a Reuters poll of analysts for a rise to 0.5 points.

It was the first rise since December last year.

"The recent euro zone growth figures suggest that the economy is stabilising which contributed to the ... increase," said ZEW President Clemens Fuest, adding, however that the climate remained fragile due to ongoing political tensions.

RETURN TO GROWTH?

Germany's export-oriented economy has been hit by mounting tensions with Russia over the Ukraine crisis and also, to a lesser degree, by the conflicts in the Middle East.

In October the ZEW index plunged to its lowest level in almost two years and organisations including the OECD and the IMF have slashed their growth forecasts. The government expects expansion of just 1.2 percent this year and 1.3 percent in 2015.

However, data released last week showed the German economy just avoided recession in the third quarter thanks to a strong rise in consumer spending and a small boost from foreign trade. It had shrunk in the second quarter.

Jennifer McKeown, senior European economist at Capital Economics, warned against placing too much weight on one monthly increase in a volatile survey.

"On balance, the survey suggests that Germany will soon be leading the euro-zone recovery again, but with modest growth that will fail to ensure a meaningful revival in the rest of the region,' she said.

A separate index of current conditions rose to 3.3 points in November from 3.2 points in October, also beating the consensus forecast of 1.8 points. The index was based on a survey of 220 analysts and investors and conducted between Nov 3 and Nov 17.