MOSCOW: As war-weary Ukraine prepares to vote in a snap parliamentary election on Sunday, its former master Russia stands by for once apparently unable to influence the outcome.
But Moscow's seeming impotence after years of alleged meddling in Ukrainian politics does not mean its policy toward the ex-Soviet state will be swayed by the results, analysts warned.
Nor will it prevent the war in the east, which Russia has been accused of orchestrating, exploding into large scale conflict again after the sporadic fighting of recent days, they said.
"Russia does not really have anyone to support in these elections," Vladimir Zharikhin, deputy director of the Kremlin-linked Institute for the Commonwealth of Independent States, told AFP.
"There's no desire to support those who stand a chance of winning and it does not make sense to support those who don't."
Of the 29 parties running for seats in the 450-seat Verkhovna Rada, the country's parliament, none formally represent the ousted regime of Kremlin-backed Viktor Yanukovych and most support closer ties with the West.
Polls show that for the first time in 20 years the Communist Party will likely fail to win any seats as Ukraine severs ties with its Soviet past.
After a year of bloody upheaval, and six months of war in the east, for which most Ukrainian blame Russia, the Kremlin's overt support for any party would be seen as a kiss of death, analysts say.
"The Russian propaganda machine does not crudely interfere in these elections," said Konstantin Kalachev, head of the Moscow-based Political Expert Group think-tank.
"If Russia shows support for Ukraine's Communist Party, which hovers around the 5 percent barrier (for entry into parliament), it will flunk for sure."
A bloc supporting President Petro Poroshenko is widely expected to win, a result that suits Moscow.
"Unlike ordinary Ukrainians, Poroshenko understands that he will have to look for compromise in ties with Russia," said Kalachev.
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